The Houston Rockets host the Oklahoma City Thunder at Toyota Center on Thursday, January 15 at 6:30 PM CT.
The Rockets come in at 23-14 as the No. 6 seed in the West, while the Thunder sit at 34-7 as the No. 1 seed.
The Rockets just beat the Bulls 119-113, snapping a three-game skid, and they did it with Kevin Durant cooking late. The Thunder most recently handled the Spurs 119-98, continuing to look like the most stable team in the conference.
This is the second meeting of the season. The Thunder took the opener in a double-overtime game, so the Rockets are trying to pull the series back to 1-1 at home.
Kevin Durant enters at 26.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists on 52.1% from the field and 40.0% from three, and Alperen Sengun has put up 21.7 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 6.6 assists.
On the other side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is rolling with 31.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists on 54.5% shooting, and Chet Holmgren adds 17.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks.
This game matters because it’s basically a measuring stick night, the Rockets get the Thunder at home, and the season series already has juice.
Injury Report
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Dorian Finney-Smith: Out (left ankle injury management)
Tari Eason: Out (right ankle sprain)
Thunder
Isaiah Hartenstein: Out (right soleus strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Luguentz Dort: Questionable (left foot soreness)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
First thing, they’re at Toyota Center, and they’ve been a problem there, sitting at 12-2 at home. That matters a ton against a team that’s comfortable everywhere, because it forces the Thunder to deal with the Rockets’ tempo and physicality from the jump.
Stat-wise, the Rockets can score with anybody on a normal night. They average 117.9 points per game, shoot 48.2% from the field, and hit 37.6% from three, which is exactly the kind of profile that can punish OKC if the Thunder get cute with help.
The other big swing is the Durant-Sengun combo. Durant has been absurdly efficient, and Sengun’s passing keeps the ball moving when defenses load up. If the Rockets win the half-court battle, they can keep this from turning into a track meet where Shai lives at the nail all night.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
Because they’re the Thunder, and they play like it. They’re 34-7 for a reason, and they come in with one of the cleanest two-way profiles in the league: 121.3 points per game scored, just 108.1 allowed, and only 12.3 turnovers per game.
Shai is the whole problem. He’s putting up 31.9 a night on 54.5% from the field with 6.4 assists, and he does it without needing broken plays. If the Rockets can’t keep him off his spots, the Thunder offense becomes automatic, and that’s when the game starts slipping.
And even with injury stuff, OKC still has depth that travels. Holmgren anchors the rim, and the Thunder can stack ball-handlers and defenders in waves. If this turns into “who executes late,” I lean Thunder because their shot quality and decision-making are just cleaner more often than not.
X-Factors
Amen Thompson is the Rockets’ tempo switch. He’s putting up 18.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and his downhill pressure is what forces the Thunder to defend the whole floor instead of just loading up on the stars. If he turns live rebounds into instant offense and gets to the line, Houston’s half-court problems get way smaller.
Jabari Smith Jr. is the spacing swing. He’s at 15.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, and Houston needs his catch-and-shoot gravity to keep OKC from shrinking the paint. If Jabari hits a couple early threes, the Thunder can’t cheat off him, and that opens the lane for everyone.
For the Thunder, Cason Wallace matters more than people want to admit. He’s at 7.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, but the real value is that he can defend, run secondary offense, and not melt down when the pace ramps up. If he wins his minutes, OKC’s bench edge shows up.
Then there’s Luguentz Dort. He’s at 8.2 points and 3.7 rebounds, and his status matters because he’s one of the few guys you trust to take the first crack at Durant possessions without constant help. If Dort plays and looks normal, OKC’s defensive scheme gets way easier.
Prediction
The Rockets absolutely have a path here, especially at home, especially if the threes fall and Sengun controls the middle. But the Thunder are just too steady, and Shai’s efficiency usually wins these “big game” regular-season nights unless you play near-perfect.
Prediction: Thunder 118, Rockets 113
