The Portland Trail Blazers host the Houston Rockets at Moda Center on Wednesday at 10:00 PM ET.
The Trail Blazers are 17-20 (ninth in the West), and the Rockets are 22-11 (fifth in the West).
The Trail Blazers just crushed the Jazz 137-117 on Monday, while the Rockets beat the Suns 100-97 on a late Kevin Durant dagger.
This is also a rematch situation. The Rockets already took the first meeting 140-116 on November 14, so the Trail Blazers are trying to even it up right away at home.
Deni Avdija is balling at 25.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists, with Shaedon Sharpe right behind him at 21.6 points per game.
For the Rockets, Kevin Durant is putting up 25.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on 52.0% from the field and 40.4% from three, and Amen Thompson has jumped to 18.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.
This one’s spicy because it’s a hot home stretch Trail Blazers team against a Rockets group that can flat-out punish mistakes, and the injury list is going to shape everything.
Injury Report
Trail Blazers
Jerami Grant: Out (left Achilles tendonitis)
Scoot Henderson: Out (left hamstring tear)
Jrue Holiday: Out (right calf strain)
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon management)
Matisse Thybulle: Out (right knee tendinopathy)
Blake Wesley: Out (right foot fracture)
Kris Murray: Doubtful (low back soreness)
Rockets
Alperen Sengun: Out (right ankle sprain)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
They’re home, they’re confident, and they’re playing freer than they did earlier in the season. They just lit up the Jazz, and they’ve won five of their last six overall, so the vibe is real.
The math path is obvious too. The Trail Blazers launch 41.5 threes a game, and they also get to the line 27.4 times a night. If you’re going to swing at a better team, that’s exactly how you do it, threes, free throws, and runs.
And Avdija is basically a whole offense right now. The Trail Blazers average 24.8 assists per game, and when he’s slicing up help and forcing rotations, they can get to that “spray-out” rhythm where the Rockets can’t load up on every drive.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
This is where the cold numbers smack you in the face. The Rockets score 119.4 points per game and allow only 111.0, while shooting 48.9% from the field and 38.8% from three. That’s the profile of a team that wins even when it doesn’t feel pretty.
The Trail Blazers have the opposite issue, defense. They’re giving up 119.6 points per game, and that’s the kind of leak that a Durant-led group will rip open if you miss a couple coverages in a row.
Even without Sengun, the Rockets can still win the possession battle. They rebound at 48.8 per game and turn it over only 16.0 times, so they don’t hand out freebies. Against a Trail Blazers team sitting at 17.0 turnovers per game, that’s a clean edge.
X-Factors
Donovan Clingan has to be a wall. He’s at 11.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks, and the Trail Blazers need him to erase mistakes when the perimeter gets beat. If he controls the glass and stays vertical, it keeps the Rockets out of rhythm.
Toumani Camara is the tone-setter wing in this matchup. He’s giving the Trail Blazers 12.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, and he’s going to draw a lot of the “make life annoying” work on the perimeter. If he can defend without fouling and still knock down enough open looks, the Trail Blazers can keep their spacing alive.
Caleb Love is the swing shot-maker. He’s at 10.1 points with 2.2 assists in about 20 minutes, and if he pops for a quick 10-12 off the bench, it changes the whole feel of the second and fourth quarters.
For the Rockets, Jabari Smith Jr. is huge in the Sengun-less version of this team. He’s at 15.5 points and 6.9 rebounds while hitting 37.4% from three, and that spacing drags bigs out of the paint so Durant and Thompson can get downhill.
Reed Sheppard is the guard who can flip a run with one hot minute. He’s averaging 13.3 points and 3.4 assists while drilling 41.7% from three. If the Trail Blazers overhelp on Durant, Sheppard’s catch-and-shoot game is the punish button.
Tari Eason is the chaos plug. He’s at 12.1 points and 5.7 rebounds in 23.7 minutes, and he’s somehow shooting 48.8% from three. If he turns this into a scrap game with extra possessions, the Rockets can steal separation even if the half-court gets sticky.
Prediction
I’m taking the Rockets. The Trail Blazers can absolutely make this a game at home, but the Rockets’ efficiency plus defense combo feels like the safer bet, especially when the Trail Blazers are already allowing 119.6 a night.
Prediction: Rockets 123, Trail Blazers 117
