The Pelicans host the Clippers at Smoothie King Center on Wednesday, March 18, at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Pelicans enter at 23-46 and 12th in the West with a 14-21 home record, while the Clippers are 34-34 and eighth with a 15-19 road record.
The Pelicans are coming off a 129-111 win over the Mavericks on Monday, while the Clippers just lost 119-115 to the Spurs. The Clippers also lead the season series 2-0 after wins of 126-124 on Oct. 31 and 137-117 on March 1, so this is the Pelicans’ last chance to avoid the sweep.
Kawhi Leonard remains the Clippers’ top offensive weapon, averaging 28.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists while shooting 50.1% from the field and 37.8% from three. Darius Garland has given them another real creator with 18.4 points and 6.8 assists per game.
For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson is averaging 21.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, while Dejounte Murray has put up 19.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists since returning to the lineup.
The hook here is pretty simple: the standings say this should lean Clippers, but the Pelicans are playing harder and cleaner lately than their record suggests, and the Clippers are walking in with real injury uncertainty around both of their top creators.
Injury Report
Pelicans
Trey Alexander: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Hunter Dickinson: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Bryce McGowens: Out (right small toe fracture)
Dejounte Murray: Questionable (illness)
Clippers
Bennedict Mathurin: Out (right toe injury recovery)
Yanic Konan Niederhauser: Out (right Lisfranc ligament tear)
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Darius Garland: Questionable (left toe injury management)
Kawhi Leonard: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Pelicans Have The Advantage
The Pelicans’ clearest edge is pace and pressure. They play at a 100.27 pace, compared with the Clippers’ 96.48, and they are also the much better offensive rebounding team. The Pelicans average 12.4 offensive rebounds and 44.2 total rebounds per game, while the Clippers are down at 9.5 offensive rebounds and 40.7 total rebounds. That means the Clippers are one of the weakest rebounding teams in the league, and the Pelicans are one of the few bad-record teams that can still tilt a game with raw possession volume.
There is also a recent-form argument on the Pelicans’ side. They have won three of their last four, including a solid 129-111 win over the Mavericks on Monday, and they have looked much more alive since Murray came back into the mix. They had won seven of 10 heading into the Rockets game last week, so this is not some random one-night bump. The record is still ugly, but the current version of the Pelicans is much more competitive than the one the Clippers beat earlier in the season.
The Pelicans also have a real interior and force-based path in this matchup. Zion is still one of the hardest covers in the league when he gets downhill, and the Clippers do not have much rebounding margin to begin with. If Murray plays, that gives the Pelicans a second driver who can bend the defense and get the game into scramble mode. Against a Clippers team with a middling 116.3 defensive rating and just a +0.8 net rating, that formula is very live.
And this is also one of those spots where home court means a little more than usual. The Pelicans are only 14-21 at home, so it is not a dominant edge, but the Clippers are just 15-19 on the road and are coming in after another physically demanding game on Monday. For a team already dealing with Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland injury questions, that is huge. The Pelicans do not need this to be pretty. They need it to be physical, uneven, and deep into the fourth, and that is a realistic game shape here.
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The cleanest argument for the Clippers is still offensive efficiency. They own a 117.1 offensive rating, compared with 114.5 for the Pelicans, and they are the better shooting team by a clear margin. The Clippers are shooting 48.3% from the field and 36.3% from three, while the Pelicans are at 46.5% from the field and 34.6% from three. Over a full game, that usually shows up when the pace settles, and the easy transition chances disappear.
The season-series evidence also takes into account. The Clippers are already 2-0 against the Pelicans, and one of those wins was a 20-point blowout on March 1. In that game, they controlled the matchup without needing some outrageous shooting luck. They got strong scoring from Leonard, Jordan Miller, Derrick Jones Jr., and Brook Lopez, and when the Pelicans made a push, the Clippers answered with an 18-4 run and put the game away. That is not a tiny detail. It is proof that the Clippers’ shot-making and structure can still win this matchup even if the rebounding numbers are not ideal.
There is also a basic quality gap between these teams. The Clippers are eighth in the West, and the Pelicans are 12th, and the underlying team stats tell a similar story. The Clippers have a positive net rating at +0.8, while the Pelicans are at -4.0. Neither number screams dominance, but one team has at least played like a fringe playoff group over the full season, and the other has spent most of the year trying to climb out of a hole.
And if Leonard plays, even at something short of full strength, he is still the best scorer in the matchup. He has scored at least 20 points in 45 straight games, and even with the ankle issue, he is the one player on either side who can clean up bad possessions over and over again. That matters in a road game like this because the Pelicans are much more dangerous when the game gets chaotic. The Clippers’ best answer to chaos is still Leonard dragging it back into half-court shot-making.
X-Factors
Kris Dunn is a real swing piece for the Clippers because this matchup can get sloppy fast. Dunn is averaging 6.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.7 steals, and those numbers undersell his value. The Clippers need his point-of-attack defense on Murray if Murray goes, and they need him to make Zion’s driving windows look a little tighter by blowing up actions early. If Dunn wins those ugly possession battles, the Clippers’ stars get a much cleaner game to operate in.
Jordan Miller is the other Clippers role guy who matters here. He is averaging 9.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.1 assists on 53.0% shooting, and he just tied a career high with 22 points against the Spurs. The Clippers need that secondary scoring because Bennedict Mathurin is out, and their top-end depth is thinner than usual. If Miller gives them another live scorer off the wing, they can survive the non-Leonard minutes much more comfortably.
Saddiq Bey is the Pelicans’ x-factor because he is giving them real two-way wing production, not just empty numbers. He is averaging 17.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, and he just scored 23 in the win over the Mavericks. Against a Clippers team that could be missing one or both of Leonard and Garland, Bey is exactly the kind of third scorer who can swing the game by punishing weak closeouts and keeping the offense from becoming too Zion-dependent.
Yves Missi matters because the Clippers’ biggest team weakness is still on the glass. Missi is averaging 5.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks in 19.0 minutes, and he tied his career high with five blocks against the Mavericks. The Pelicans do not need him to score 15. They need him to rebound, protect the rim, and make the Clippers feel crowded inside. If he gives them that, the Pelicans can keep leaning into the exact type of game they want.
Prediction
This feels like one of those games where the better record matters less than the game shape. The Clippers are still the better offensive team, and if Leonard plays, they probably have the best player on the floor. But the Pelicans are in better rhythm right now, they are at home, they rebound much better, and the Clippers are carrying real injury questions around both Leonard and Garland. I think this gets ugly, physical, and close late, and that type of game gives the Pelicans a real shot. I lean slightly to the home side here.
Prediction: Pelicans 116, Clippers 113
