The Lakers host the Thunder at Crypto.com Arena on Monday, February 9, 2026, at 10:00 PM ET.
The Lakers come in at 32-19 (5th in the West), and they’ve been solid at home (14-8). The Thunder are 40-13 (1st in the West) and elite on the road (18-7).
The Lakers are riding a three-game win streak and just beat the Warriors 105-99 on Saturday. The Thunder are coming in off back-to-back losses, including a 112-106 loss to the Rockets on Saturday.
This is the second meeting. The Thunder took the first one 121-92 back on November 12, so the Lakers are already playing from behind in the matchup.
For the Lakers, it’s basically LeBron James (21.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.8 assists) and Austin Reaves (26.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists) holding the whole thing together with Luka Doncic out.
For the Thunder, the headline is what’s missing: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out with an abdominal strain. That means more creation has to come from committee, but the Thunder’s backbone is still the same: defense, pressure, and two bigs who clean up mistakes.
Injury Report
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Out (abdominal strain)
Ajay Mitchell: Out (abdominal strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (knee; out for season)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Lakers
Luka Doncic: Out (left hamstring strain)
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Deandre Ayton: Probable (right knee soreness)
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
First, the Lakers’ best edge is efficiency at home. They’re 14-8 in this building, and even with Doncic out, they can still win the “shot-quality” game because they finish plays. They’re 2nd in the league in effective field goal percentage (57.0%).
Second, this is where Austin Reaves matters more than usual. With the Thunder’s ball pressure, you need a guard who can get into the paint without coughing it up, and Reaves has been playing like a No. 1 option statistically (26.1 points, 6.0 assists). If he’s turning corners and forcing rotations, the Lakers can generate enough clean catch-and-shoot looks to keep up.
Third, if Deandre Ayton is good to go, the Lakers can attack the middle of the floor as a release valve when the Thunder load up on LeBron. Ayton is at 13.4 points and 8.4 rebounds on 67.6% from the field, which is basically automatic offense if the guards can just deliver the ball on time.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
This is the simplest case on the board: the Thunder are the best defense in the league. No. 1 in defensive rating (105.9), No. 1 in net rating (+11.8), and they also take care of the ball (12.2% turnover rate, best in the NBA). That’s the exact profile that travels when you’re missing a superstar scorer.
They’re not a “defense-only” team either. Even with the injuries, they’re 3rd in offensive rating (117.7), and ESPN’s team splits have them at 119.9 points per game while allowing just 107.9. That points-against number is disgusting.
And matchup-wise, the Thunder can throw waves of perimeter defenders at Reaves and LeBron, then erase mistakes behind it. That matters because the Lakers’ defense has been leaky on the season (115.8 allowed per game), so if the Thunder create even a small possession edge, the math leans their way.
X-Factors
Austin Reaves is obviously the Lakers’ swing. The stat line is star-level (26.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists), but the real question is stamina and decision-making against pressure. If he keeps the turnovers down and gets the Lakers into early offense, this turns into a very real upset spot.
Rui Hachimura is the spacing lever. He’s hitting 44.91% from three, and the Lakers need that gravity so the Thunder can’t just flood the lane at LeBron and Reaves. If Hachimura hits two early threes, the whole defensive script changes.
On the Thunder side, Chet Holmgren is the “quiet star” without Shai. He’s at 17.7 points and 8.7 rebounds, and he’s also a legit rim deterrent (1.98 blocks per game per team leaders). If he controls the paint and pops enough to punish drop coverage, the Thunder can score without needing hero-ball.
Isaiah Hartenstein is the possession stabilizer. He’s giving them 10.7 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, which is exactly what you want when your lead creator is out: screens, short-roll passing, and second-chance points without forcing it.
And if the game gets messy, Alex Caruso is the chaos button. He’s only at 6.1 points, but he’s still producing 1.4 steals per game, and that’s how the Thunder build mini-runs without a star scorer: live-ball turnovers into instant points.
Prediction
I’m taking the Thunder. Even without Shai, the defense is too strong and too organized to bet against, and the turnover discipline (best in the league) is a brutal counter to a Lakers team that’s trying to patch the offense together without Doncic. The Lakers can absolutely make this uncomfortable at home, but the Thunder’s floor is higher.
Prediction: Thunder 110, Lakers 106
