The Wizards host the Lakers at Capital One Arena on Friday, January 30, at 7:00 PM ET.
The Lakers come in 28-18 and are sitting sixth in the West, while the Wizards are 12-34 and 14th in the East.
The Lakers are trying to wash off a brutal 129-99 loss to the Cavaliers, while the Wizards just beat the Bucks 109-99 and finally have a little juice going.
This is the first meeting of the season, and they’ll see each other again on March 30 at Crypto.com Arena.
Even with Luka Doncic listed as questionable, this matchup still screams “Lakers get-right spot.” Luka is putting up 33.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 8.7 assists on 47.4% from the field, and LeBron James is at 22.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 6.7 assists.
On the Wizards’ side, Alex Sarr has been the real problem at 17.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.2 blocks, and Kyshawn George is at 15.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists.
Injury Report
Lakers
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Luka Doncic: Questionable (left ankle soreness)
Austin Reaves: Questionable (left calf strain)
Wizards
Trae Young: Out (right knee MCL sprain, quad contusion)
Cam Whitmore: Out (right shoulder deep vein thrombosis)
Tristan Vukcevic: Out (left hamstring strain)
Marvin Bagley III: Out (thoracic strain)
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
Start with the obvious: the Wizards’ defense has been a layup line all season. They’re allowing 122.3 points per game, which is basically charity work for elite creators.
And the Lakers have creators. They’re scoring 115.9 points per game on 49.5% shooting, plus 38.4% from three. Those are real numbers, and against a team that bleeds points, it’s hard not to like the math.
The other sneaky edge is ball security. The Lakers are at 14.9 turnovers per game, and if they keep it clean, this turns into a shot quality contest. The Wizards do not want that, because their margin for error is tiny when they’re giving up this many clean looks.
Why The Wizards Have The Advantage
If the Wizards are going to make this annoying, it starts with chaos and physicality. They’re grabbing 43.8 rebounds per game and averaging 6.1 blocks, and Sarr’s rim protection is legit. If he turns the paint into a “nope” zone, the Lakers’ easy points dry up fast.
There’s also a real “energy spot” here. The Wizards are coming off a win, playing at home, and they’ve got young guys who will sprint into this game like it’s their Super Bowl. If the Lakers show up sleepwalking after that Cavaliers embarrassment, the Wizards can steal a quarter and make the building loud.
And if Luka sits, the entire matchup shifts. It becomes way more about whether the Lakers can generate efficient offense through LeBron plus spacing, instead of Luka bending the floor every possession.
X-Factors
Austin Reaves is the swing piece if he plays. He’s been ridiculous before his injury on Christmas, putting up 26.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists on 50.7% shooting and 36.5% from three. If he’s active, the Lakers’ half-court offense gets a second downhill creator, and the Wizards’ perimeter defense is not built for that.
Rui Hachimura has to punish the gaps. He’s at 12.5 points per game while drilling 43.9% from three, and this is exactly the kind of matchup where his size and shotmaking can flip a run. If he hits early, the Wizards can’t load up as aggressively.
Marcus Smart is the tone-setter. He’s at 9.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, with 1.3 steals, and if the Lakers want to play bully-ball defensively, he’s the guy who starts it. If Smart turns this into a grind and the Wizards’ guards get uncomfortable, the game gets ugly.
For the Wizards, it’s Sarr first. The numbers are loud, 17.6 points and 2.2 blocks, and the eye test matches it. If he stays out of foul trouble and owns the paint, the Wizards can actually win the “effort battle,” which is usually how upsets happen.
Bub Carrington is the other one. He’s at 10.0 points and 4.6 assists with 40.3% from three, and if he knocks down pull-ups, the Lakers can’t just sit on the main creators and dare the kids to make shots.
And keep an eye on Bilal Coulibaly. He’s only at 9.9 points, but he brings 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks, and he’s the type who can pop with transition plays if the Lakers get loose with the ball.
Prediction
I’m taking the Lakers. The Wizards can hang around with energy and Sarr’s defense, but the overall shotmaking gap is too big, and the Wizards’ season-long defense is just begging to get cooked.
Prediction: Lakers 121, Wizards 110
