The Suns host the Thunder in Game 4 at Mortgage Matchup Center on Monday, April 27, at 9:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder lead the first-round series 3-0 after winning Game 3, 121-109, and the Suns are now trying to avoid a sweep. Game 4 is not only about pride. It is about whether the Suns can finally make the Thunder uncomfortable for more than one quarter.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has owned the series. He is averaging 34.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 8.0 assists, and Game 3 was his best night: 42 points, four rebounds, eight assists, 15-of-18 from the field, and 11-of-12 from the line.
Dillon Brooks has been the Suns’ top scorer at 27.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists, while Jalen Green is at 21.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. Devin Booker is at 20.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists, but the Thunder have turned him into a secondary scorer instead of the series’ main problem.
The Game 3 detail that matters most: the Suns led by nine late in the first quarter, then the Thunder closed the period on an 18-4 run. From there, the game moved back into the Thunder’s rhythm. The Suns did get 33 points from Brooks and 26 from Green, but Booker finished with only 16 points on 6-of-16 shooting. That is not enough against this defense.
Injury Report
Suns
Jordan Goodwin: Questionable (left calf strain)
Mark Williams: Out (left foot third metatarsal stress reaction)
Thunder
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Jalen Williams: Out (left hamstring strain)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns’ best argument is that Game 3 finally gave them a workable offensive shape. Brooks was aggressive, Green got downhill, and Oso Ighodaro gave them a real release valve in the middle. The Suns shot 43.7% from the field and made 13 threes, which is not elite, but it was enough to stay within range against a team that has controlled the whole series.
The adjustment is Booker. The Thunder are treating him as the first priority, crowding his ball screens and forcing him into traffic. Booker’s best looks in the series have come in transition or after offensive rebounds, not out of standard ball-screen actions. That tells the Suns what has to change. They need more early offense, more off-ball movement, and fewer slow possessions where Booker has to create against a loaded floor.
The Suns also have to punish the Thunder for playing without Jalen Williams. That has not happened yet. Williams had 41 points on 16-of-26 shooting over Games 1 and 2 before the hamstring injury, but the Thunder still scored 121 in Game 3 without him. The Suns cannot let the Thunder’s smaller creation group survive that comfortably again. They need to attack Ajay Mitchell, force switches, and make Shai defend more actions before he gets the ball back.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder have the advantage because they are winning the exact areas the Suns need to control. The Suns’ defense is built on pressure, but the Thunder have committed only 8.9 turnovers per 100 possessions in the series. That mark would be tied for the third-lowest rate for any team in any playoff series in the last 30 years. That is brutal for the Suns because their pressure is not creating enough easy points.
Game 3 was also a masterclass from Gilgeous-Alexander. He went 6-of-7 from mid-range, finished with a playoff career-high 42 points, and kept finding the right counter when the Suns changed matchups. They tried smaller defenders. They tried Ighodaro. They sent a double-team in the middle of the floor. The Thunder still created clean looks.
The Thunder’s bench is another problem. Without Williams, they still outscored the Suns by 16 with at least one reserve on the floor in Game 3. They also won Gilgeous-Alexander’s 10 bench minutes by two points and did not commit a turnover in that stretch. That is the difference between a good team and a title-level team. The Suns are trying to survive non-Booker minutes. The Thunder are winning non-SGA minutes.
X-Factors
Oso Ighodaro is the Suns’ biggest tactical X-factor. He is averaging 7.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in the series, and Game 3 was his best offensive game: 15 points, three rebounds, and four assists on 6-of-8 shooting. If the Thunder keep trapping Booker or loading up on Green drives, Ighodaro has to finish short rolls and make fast passes.
Royce O’Neale has to be more than a spacer. He is averaging 7.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, while shooting 6-of-11 from three in the series. His Game 2 line was strong: 16 points, nine rebounds, four assists, and 4-of-5 from deep. In Game 3, he had only three points. The Suns need the Game 2 version to keep the floor open.
Ajay Mitchell matters because he is now starting in Williams’ spot. He is averaging 12.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in the series, but Game 3 showed both sides. He had 15 points and six rebounds, but shot 5-of-20. The Thunder can live with some misses if he defends, pushes pace, and avoids turnovers.
Alex Caruso is the Thunder’s stabilizer. He is averaging 7.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.0 assists, and Game 3 was his best night: 13 points, five rebounds, and 3-of-6 from three. His value is not just shooting. He keeps possessions clean, guards multiple spots, and gives the Thunder another smart decision-maker when the Suns send pressure.
Prediction
The Suns should play with urgency, and Brooks and Green have done enough offensively to make this more competitive than Game 1. But the Thunder have solved too many parts of the matchup. They are not turning the ball over, Gilgeous-Alexander is getting to his spots, and the bench has held up even without Williams. Booker needs a breakout game to extend the series. I do not trust the Suns to create enough clean looks for him.
Prediction: Thunder 118, Suns 106
