The Oklahoma City Thunder are treating the 2025-26 season like a personal speed run. They hit this NBA Cup quarterfinal on Wednesday night at 23-1, riding a 15-game winning streak and owning the best record, best defense, and best net rating in the league.
This is the matchup where they can send another loud message, this time on a tournament stage.
The Phoenix Suns are the dangerous underdog here. At 14-10 and seventh in the West, they have been wildly up-and-down, but the ceiling is obvious whenever Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks are both rolling.
Booker is averaging 25.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 6.7 assists on 45.7% from the field, doing everything as the primary creator. Brooks has been the surprise, putting up 22.1 points per game on 45.3% shooting and giving them a nasty edge on the wing.
The last time these teams met, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 37, and Chet Holmgren added 23 in a 123-119 win that never really felt out of the Thunder’s control. Now you throw in a knockout environment and the chance to keep chasing 73 wins talk, and this suddenly feels like one of the best games of the Cup so far.
Injury Report
Phoenix Suns
- Devin Booker (right groin strain) is listed as questionable.
- Jalen Green (right hamstring strain) is out.
- Isaiah Livers (right hip strain) is out.
Booker’s status is the whole story here. The Suns just got smoked by Houston when he sat, shooting 39.0% from the field and 13.9% from three, even with 23 points from Brooks.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Isaiah Hartenstein (right soleus strain) is out.
- Isaiah Joe (left knee contusion) is out.
- Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is out.
- Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is out.
Losing Hartenstein hurts. He is leading the team with 10.7 rebounds per game and has been a huge part of the Thunder’s dominance on the glass. Still, this roster has depth everywhere, especially up front with Holmgren.
Advantages
Start with the obvious: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like the best guard in the world. He is averaging 32.8 points and 6.4 assists per game, and he is barely touching the floor in fourth quarters because so many games are already over.
Holmgren looks like a fully-formed star, putting up 18.6 points and 8.1 rebounds on a ridiculous 57.5% from the field. When he is spacing the floor, handling the ball on the break, and blocking shots at the rim, there is basically no clean matchup for him.
As a team, the Thunder profile like a juggernaut. They are second in the league in scoring at 123.0 points per game, fifth in offensive rating at 120.0, first in defensive rating at 104.1, and first in net rating at plus-15.9. That is “historical outlier” territory.
On top of that, this is a horrible opponent for a banged-up backcourt. The Thunder switch, swarm, and turn every mistake into transition points. If Booker is limited or out, the Suns are suddenly asking Brooks, Grayson Allen, and Mark Williams to generate clean looks against the most locked-in defense in the league. That usually ends badly.
If Booker plays and looks like himself, everything changes. He is a big-game scorer who can swing a series by catching fire for two quarters, and his 25.0 points per night show how much the ball is in his hands.
The Suns also have one thing the Thunder occasionally struggle with: physical perimeter defenders who can bother Shai at the point of attack. Brooks is built for this kind of assignment. At 22.1 points per game himself, he is not just a stopper; he is a scorer who can make Shai work on both ends.
Jordan Ott’s group can also shoot their way into a game. They rank sixth in three-pointers made per game at 14.6, and when the threes are falling, the floor opens up for Booker’s pick-and-rolls and drive-and-kick attacks. If they get a hot shooting night while the Thunder finally look mortal, the upset is very real.
Prediction: Who Wins And By How Much?
I love the Suns’ fight, and a fully healthy Booker gives this game real chaos potential. But the gap between these teams right now is massive. The Thunder are 23-1, they have won 15 straight, and they own both the best defense and one of the best offenses in the NBA.
In a tournament setting, I am betting on the deeper, healthier, historically good group. Gilgeous-Alexander should control this game, Holmgren should win the frontcourt battle, and the Thunder’s wave of role players should wear down a Suns team that has leaned way too hard on Booker and Brooks.
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 122, Phoenix Suns 106.
