Frost Bank Center hosts this one on Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. ET. The Spurs come in at 60-19, second in the West, while the Trail Blazers are 40-39, ninth in the conference.
The Spurs are 30-7 at home, and the Trail Blazers are 18-22 on the road. The Spurs beat the 76ers 115-102 on Monday, while the Trail Blazers lost 137-132 in overtime to the Nuggets after hitting a franchise-record 25 threes.
The season series is tied 1-1, with the Spurs winning 115-102 in November before the Trail Blazers answered with a 115-110 road win in January.
Victor Wembanyama is still the biggest name in the matchup, even with his status up in the air, and he is averaging 24.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists while shooting 51.0% from the field and 35.0% from three. Stephon Castle has become a major engine next to him with 16.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game.
On the other side, Deni Avdija has carried a huge offensive load at 24.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists, while Donovan Clingan has given the Trail Blazers 12.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks.
This is a real test for both teams, just in different ways. The Spurs are trying to protect one of the best records in basketball and clean up their playoff rotation. The Trail Blazers are still chasing ground in the play-in race, and their formula is dangerous enough to make this annoying if the Spurs do not control the glass and the turnover battle.
Injury Report
Spurs
David Jones Garcia: Out (right ankle surgery)
Stephon Castle: Doubtful (right knee soreness)
Victor Wembanyama: Doubtful (left rib contusion)
Trail Blazers
Jerami Grant: Out (right calf strain)
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Vit Krejci: Doubtful (left calf contusion)
Shaedon Sharpe: Doubtful (left fibula stress reaction)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The clearest edge is overall quality. The Spurs have a 119.4 offensive rating, which ranks fifth in the league, a 111.1 defensive rating, which ranks third, and a plus-8.4 net rating, which ranks second. That is contender-level balance. They are not just winning with one hot stretch or one elite scorer. They are top five on one side of the ball, top three on the other, and the profile says they have been one of the NBA’s most complete teams from opening night through April.
The Spurs also have the stronger possession base. They score 119.7 points per game, third in the league, grab 47.1 rebounds per game, second, hand out 28.1 assists per game, ninth, and shoot 48.3% from the field, fourth. That is a hard team to survive against because it can beat you in more than one style. The Spurs can flatten you with pace and ball movement, but they can also beat you with size, second chances, and clean half-court execution. At home, that gets even more dangerous, with the Spurs sitting 30-7 and averaging 120.3 points per game in their own building.
Even if Wembanyama does not play, the defensive structure still gives the Spurs a cushion. They are 11-5 without him this season, which says a lot about their depth and organization. With Wembanyama, of course, the ceiling changes because his 3.1 blocks per game lead the league and erase mistakes at the rim. But even in the games he has missed, the Spurs have stayed connected, rotated well, and defended enough to win because De’Aaron Fox, Castle, and the rest of the perimeter group have held the shape of the system together.
The matchup itself also tilts their way because of what the Trail Blazers do poorly. The Blazers are turning it over 17.4 times per game, the highest number in the league, and they allow 10.9 opponent steals per game, also the worst mark in the league. They are only 27th in three-point percentage at 34.3%. That combination is dangerous against a team like the Spurs, because it creates empty possessions and runout chances. If the Spurs defend the glass at even a decent level, the Trail Blazers may not have enough efficient half-court offense to keep pace for four quarters.
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The Blazers have one very real path in this game, and it starts on the glass. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in basketball, ranking second in offensive rebounds and second in offensive rebound percentage. They also sit sixth in total rebounds per game at 46.0. Donovan Clingan has been the centerpiece of that identity. He is averaging 11.6 rebounds, including 4.5 offensive boards, and he leads the league in offensive rebounds. If the Blazers win the extra-possession battle, the shape of this game changes immediately.
They can also stress the Spurs with volume from deep. The Blazers take 42.3 threes per game, the third-highest number in the league, and they play at the ninth-fastest pace. That means they can create ugly rhythm fast. Monday was the best example. They drilled a franchise-record 25 threes against the Nuggets and nearly stole that game on the road. The shooting efficiency is not great overall, because they are only 27th in three-point percentage, but the volume is so high that one hot night can swing the matchup anyway.
There is also some real pressure on the Spurs’ frontcourt if Wembanyama sits again. The Blazers already beat them once in this building, and in that 115-110 win, they hit 19 threes, won the rebound battle 51-48, and kept the Spurs from owning the paint. That game showed the formula. The Trail Blazers do not need to be cleaner or more talented over 48 minutes. They need to stretch the floor, keep Clingan around the rim, and turn the game into a contest of math through three-pointers and second chances.
The recent form is strong enough to take seriously, too. The Trail Blazers are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have scored 119.1 points per game over that stretch. Avdija has been the main reason. He gives them real shot creation, real playmaking, and enough size to bother smaller defenders. Jrue Holiday adds another stabilizer in the backcourt, and Clingan keeps every possession alive around the basket. The Blazers are still only 20th in net rating for the season, so the flaws are obvious, but this is not a dead offense walking into a bad spot. There is real resistance here.
X-Factors
Julian Champagnie feels important for the Spurs in this one. He is averaging 11.2 points and 5.8 rebounds while shooting 38.4% from three. If the Trail Blazers load the paint to deal with drives and post touches, Champagnie becomes one of the cleanest release valves on the floor. He also has enough size to help the Spurs survive the rebounding fight on the wing, which could be a hidden swing point if Wembanyama is limited or out.
Luke Kornet is the other Spurs swing piece. His stat line is modest at 6.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, but the 64.0% field-goal mark tells you exactly what he is. He finishes plays, screens well, and gives the Spurs honest rim protection. Against this opponent, though, the main job is bigger than the box score. Kornet has to keep Clingan from wrecking the offensive glass. If he holds up there, the Spurs probably control the night. If he does not, the Trail Blazers will keep generating second chances and keeping pressure on the game.
Toumani Camara is a major one for the Trail Blazers. He is averaging 13.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, plus 1.1 steals, and he just dropped 30 against the Nuggets. He matters because he gives the Trail Blazers a two-way wing who can hit threes, run the floor, and take tough perimeter assignments. Against a Spurs team with a lot of size on the wing, Camara’s defensive work may matter just as much as his offense. He can help decide whether the Trail Blazers stay connected enough to make this a real fourth-quarter game.
Jrue Holiday is the other one. He is at 16.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.2 assists while shooting 39.0% from three, and that is the kind of secondary organizer the Trail Blazers need in a matchup like this. The Spurs are strong enough defensively that empty possessions can bury you fast, so Holiday’s ball security and decision-making matter. If he can keep the Trail Blazers settled, get Avdija into good spots, and punish help with spot-up shooting, the game stays alive. If he is loose with the ball, the Spurs will turn that into points quickly.
Prediction
I like the Spurs here. The full-season profile is just too strong. They are fifth in offensive rating, third in defensive rating, second in net rating, third in scoring, second in rebounding, and they are 30-7 at home. The Trail Blazers have real counters with their offensive rebounding, pace, and three-point volume, and I do think those things will keep the game competitive for a while. But the turnover issue is too big, and over 48 minutes, the Spurs simply have more clean ways to win possessions. Even if Wembanyama sits, I still trust the Spurs more.
Prediction: Spurs 121, Trail Blazers 113
