- Joel Embiid has won two straight scoring titles with the Philadelphia 76ers
- There are countless playmakers who will gun for the assist title
- Can Nikola Jokic repeat as the leader in double-doubles and triple-doubles?
As we stand on the brink of the 2023-24 season, excitement and speculation abound. Who will be the scoring machine leading the league in points per game? Which defensive stalwart will emerge as the dominant shot-blocker? Who will orchestrate their team’s offense with the most assists? These questions and more loom large as we aim to predict all the league leaders before the upcoming season.
It is time to analyze the stats, assess player dynamics, and consider the ever-changing landscape of professional basketball to predict who might lead the league in various statistical categories in the 2023-24 campaign. From scoring to rebounding, steals to three-point shooting, we leave no statistical stone unturned as we endeavor to forecast the future of the NBA’s elite performers. Here are the league leaders in each of the nine major categories before the 2023-24 season.
Points Per Game
1. Joel Embiid – 32.7 PPG
2. Luka Doncic – 32.1 PPG
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 30.5 PPG
Joel Embiid’s predicted position as the leading scorer with an average of 32.7 points per game is a testament to his offensive prowess. The Philadelphia 76ers center has consistently been a force to be reckoned with in the paint, utilizing his size, footwork, and shooting range to score efficiently. His ability to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line adds to his high-scoring output, and he has won the last two scoring titles.
Luka Doncic, at just 24 years old, will continue to impress with an average of 32.1 points per game. His scoring ability is characterized by exceptional ball-handling, court vision, and the ability to hit difficult shots from long range. Doncic’s versatility allows him to score in various ways, making him a constant threat to opposing defenses, and even with Kyrie Irving beside him, he will post close to his 32.4 points per game average of last year.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s presence among the top scorers is a testament to his rapidly rising status in the league. As a guard for the Oklahoma City Thunder, he’s taken on a significant offensive load as the rest of the roster is very young and inexperienced. Shai posted 31.4 points per game last season, and he will crack the 30 PPG mark again as he finishes third in the scoring race.
Rebounds Per Game
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 12.5 RPG
2. Domantas Sabonis – 12.1 RPG
3. Nikola Jokic – 11.8 RPG
Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely lead the league in rebounds per game with an average of 12.5. His combination of athleticism, length, and agility makes him a dominant presence on both ends of the court. With Damian Lillard now by his side, Giannis can focus a bit more on defense and crashing the boards and will have an exceptional season in that sense. Giannis has yet to lead the league in rebounds and he will do it for the first time in 2024.
Domantas Sabonis will follow closely behind Giannis with an impressive 12.1 rebounds per game. Sabonis, known for his blue-collar approach to the game, excels in positioning himself for boards and boxing out opponents. He led the NBA in rebounds per game last season (12.3) and will just miss out on his second rebounds title.
Reigning NBA Finals MVP Nikola Jokic secures the third spot with an average of 11.8 rebounds per game. Jokic’s unique skill set as a center with exceptional passing abilities sets him apart, but his rebounding shouldn’t be overlooked. His basketball IQ and positioning allow him to grab boards efficiently, and his outlet passes often initiate fast breaks for his team, showcasing his value as a complete player. Expect him to post over 11 rebounds per game with the Denver Nuggets in 2024.
Assists Per Game
1. Trae Young – 10.3 APG
2. Tyrese Haliburton – 10.1 APG
3. Nikola Jokic – 9.8 APG
Trae Young finished second in the NBA in assists per game behind James Harden, but he will win his first title in 2024. Known for his exceptional ball-handling and court vision, Young has firmly established himself as one of the premier playmakers in the NBA. His ability to create scoring opportunities for his teammates, whether through pinpoint passes or his own scoring threat, makes him the engine that drives the Atlanta Hawks’ offense.
Tyrese Haliburton won’t be far behind Young with an average of 10.1 assists per game. The young guard has quickly risen as a dynamic playmaker for the Pacers, showcasing his basketball IQ and ability to set up his teammates effectively. The talented guard posted 10.4 assists per game last season and while his figure won’t be as high in 2024, he will be close to Young’s spot.
Finally, Nikola Jokic will always be a playmaking machine, even if he will share ball-handling duties with Jamal Murray. The Serbian is posting a career 6.6 assists per game despite being a center and he will continue doing what he does best in 2024. Since the Nuggets have confidence after coming off a championship season, they will be firing on all cylinders around their superstar center.
Steals Per Game
1. Jimmy Butler – 2.0 SPG
2. Fred VanVleet – 1.8 SPG
3. OG Anunoby – 1.7 SPG
Jimmy Butler will likely top the league in steals per game with an average of 2.0. His tenacious on-ball defense and ability to read passing lanes make him a constant threat to opposing offenses. Butler led the NBA in steals per game in 2020-21 (2.1) and will recapture his spot because he will be motivated to have an exceptional individual season since Damian Lillard is not by his side.
Fred VanVleet has quietly flown under the radar as an exceptional perimeter defensive guard and he will post an average of 1.8 steals per game in 2024. The Houston Rockets guard is known for his quick hands and excellent anticipation, allowing him to generate turnovers and transition into offense efficiently. He has posted at least 1.7 steals per game over the past three seasons and will continue that trend in 2024.
OG Anunoby rounds out the top three with an average of 1.7 steals per game. Anunoby’s combination of length and agility makes him a versatile defender, capable of guarding multiple positions effectively. His ability to create turnovers and disrupt opponents’ plays is crucial for his team and adds to their defensive solidity, which is why he will be a contender for Defensive Player of the Year.
Blocks Per Game
1. Jaren Jackson Jr. – 2.8 BPG
2. Myles Turner – 2.6 BPG
3. Walker Kessler – 2.5 BPG
Jaren Jackson Jr. led the league in blocks per game last season with an impressive average of 3.0, and he will do it again for the third time in 2024. The Memphis Grizzlies’ power forward/center is known for his shot-blocking prowess and defensive presence in the paint. His combination of size, athleticism, and timing allows him to contest and block shots effectively. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year will also be in the running for his second trophy as well.
Myles Turner is a close second with an average of 2.6 blocks per game because he wants to be an All-Star for the Pacers. The center has long been one of the league’s premier shot-blockers. Turner’s incredible wingspan and shot-blocking instincts make him a formidable rim protector. The big man has led the league in blocks twice and he will try to make it a third, although he will just be behind Jackson Jr.
Walker Kessler will rank third in blocks per game with an average of 2.5. Kessler, a rising star, has made a significant impact on the Utah Jazz’s defense with his shot-blocking ability. His timing and agility allow him to swat away shots in the paint, altering the course of games and providing a defensive anchor for his team. The 2022-23 All-Rookie Team member will continue his ascension next year.
Turnovers Per Game
1. Trae Young – 4.0 TOV
2. Luka Doncic – 3.8 TOV
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 3.7 TOV
Turnovers are not the best stat for players, but since he will likely lead the NBA in assists, Trae Young will have the most giveaways. Historically, while he excels as a playmaker and scorer, Young’s high number of turnovers is indicative of his high usage rate and the risks associated with being the primary ball-handler for the Atlanta Hawks. His ambitious passing and ball-handling often lead to turnovers, but they are also a byproduct of his creative style of play and he will average the most turnovers.
Luka Doncic is another player with a very high usage and having Kyrie Irving by his side won’t make that much of a difference. The Sloevenaisn will still handle the ball a ton of dealing with double-teams, which means he will be forced into many uncomfortable situations. Since Luka is 24 years old, it’s worth noting that young, ball-dominant players tend to have higher turnover numbers as they develop their decision-making skills.
Finally, Giannis Antetokounmpo will have a better season with Damian Lillard by his side, but he will generate a ton of turnovers to start the season as he learns his new teammate’s behaviors on the court. The Greek Freak is very unselfish and will want to feed Lillard as much as possible early on, creating a lot of unforced errors. His turnovers won’t affect his production, as he will still play as a top-five player in the world in 2024.
3-Point Percentage
1. Luke Kennard – 47.5%
2. Tyrese Maxey – 44.5%
3. Buddy Hield – 43.9%
No Stephen Curry since the Golden State Warriors star is a gunner from deep and will always deal with contested looks. That means Luke Kennard, one of the best sharpshooters in history in terms of percentage, will lead the NBA in 3-point percentage in 2024. Kennard averaged a ridiculous 49.4% clip from deep and while he won’t shoot that well in 2024, he will come close because he will receive a ton of good looks on the Grizzlies roster.
Tyrese Maxey is primed for a breakout campaign because James Harden probably won’t be on the team and Joel Embiid will be forced to carry much of the offensive burden. That means Maxey will have a ton of open looks on the floor and will also shoot the ball with a ton of confidence. Maxey shot 43.4% from deep last season, and expect him to be a little better this year.
Buddy Hield is primed for an excellent campaign because he is one of the best shooters in the NBA and posted over 42% shooting last year. Hield will likely get traded and because of that, the player will be very motivated to shoot the ball with no fear and get his percentage as high as possible. Considering he posts a career 40.2% from deep, it isn’t very farfetched to assume he nails over 43%.
Double-Doubles
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 68
2. Nikola Jokic – 65
3. Domantas Sabonis – 61
Giannis Antetokounmpo will show more of his all-around game than ever before now that Damian Lillard is by his side. The Greek Freak finished fourth in the NBA in double-doubles last season with 46, but that number will jump once he realizes Lillard is a capable scorer who does not need much help on offense. The Milwaukee Bucks’ superstar consistently fills up the stat sheet with points and rebounds, showcasing his versatility as both a scorer and a dominant force on the boards, and he will continue to do it next season.
Reigning NBA champion Nikola Jokic will be not far behind with 65 double-doubles. Jokic’s unique skill set as a center with exceptional passing ability allows him to record double-doubles not only in points and rebounds but also in assists. His basketball IQ and ability to impact every aspect of the game make him the focal point of the Denver Nuggets offense and a consistent double-double machine.
The Sacramento Kings star will secure the third spot with 61 double-doubles. Sabonis’s tenacity on the glass and his scoring ability in the post make him a reliable double-double contributor, as he posted a league-leading 65 double-doubles last year. Even if he won’t lead the league in 2024, he will come very close.
Triple-Doubles
1. Nikola Jokic – 27
2. Luka Doncic – 22
3. Domantas Sabonis – 15
Nikola Jokic tops the league in triple-doubles with an astounding total of 27. Jokic, known for his unique combination of scoring, rebounding, and playmaking abilities as a center, continues to be a triple-double machine. His versatility and ability to impact all aspects of the game make him a focal point of the Denver Nuggets offense. The Serbian led the league last year with 29 and he will do it again in 2024.
Luka Doncic will follow closely with 22 triple-doubles. Doncic, a young superstar for the Dallas Mavericks, possesses exceptional court vision and playmaking skills, allowing him to consistently record triple-doubles by contributing points, rebounds, and assists. Posting 32.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game last season, the Slovenian will post over 20 double-doubles next season based on these stats.
Domantas Sabonis once again secures the third spot in a major category with 15 triple-doubles. Sabonis’s combination of scoring, rebounding, and passing makes him a triple-double threat and he had an exceptional campaign in 2023 by posting 19.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game. Expect the big man to hover around those numbers again as he racks up triple-doubles.
