After publishing the power forwards on Friday, this is the final position in the 2026 free agency series. Center is also the thinnest market of the group.
The main reason is structure. A large share of the best young bigs are headed for restricted free agency or extension paths, which limits true availability and reduces the odds that a team can simply outbid the market. That leaves a smaller unrestricted pool, and it is not top-heavy with prime starters. For contenders, that usually means two outcomes: overpay a limited set of starting options, or pivot quickly to short-term veterans, backup 5s, and specialist roles.
This class is still relevant because center minutes are not optional. Teams will be shopping for rim protection, defensive rebounding, screening, and vertical spacing. But the supply problem is real: most teams looking for a long-term starting center are more likely to find answers via trade or internal development than through open free agency in 2026.
10. Robert Williams III
2026-27 Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
Robert Williams III is a high-variance center option because the defensive ceiling is still obvious, but the availability risk is part of the profile. For the Trail Blazers in 2025-26, Williams is averaging 6.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.1 assists, while shooting 74.2% from the field. The scoring is almost entirely rim-based, which is fine for his role. The value is defense: vertical contests, second jumps, and the ability to erase mistakes behind the play when he is healthy enough to hold minutes.
Contract-wise, he is a real free agent. Williams is on $13.3 million this season and is set up to reach unrestricted free agency in 2026. That makes him one of the few centers in this tier who can actually hit the market without a team option or matching rights. The decision for teams is simple: are they buying a starter, or a 20-minute specialist who plays in playoff matchups where rim protection swings the game.
The evaluation is not about skill. It is about durability and workload. The transaction log shows repeated inactive stretches across the last two seasons, which is consistent with how teams have had to manage him. The 2025-26 stat line also reflects that he has not been a high-minute player. If a team needs him to be a 30-minute anchor for 70 games, it is a bad bet.
What I think happens: he signs a short, incentive-friendly deal in the mid-tier center market, likely 2 years, $18.0–$24.0 million with games-played bonuses and a team option. The most logical fits are contenders that need rim protection behind an established starter or want a matchup center for the postseason: Lakers, Nuggets, Heat, Warriors.
9. Jusuf Nurkic
2026-27 Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
Jusuf Nurkic’s 2026 value is clearer than most veterans because the role is fixed: physical screen-setting, defensive rebounding, and passing from the elbows. With the Jazz in 2025-26, Nurkic posted 10.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, shooting 50.3% from the field before a season-ending injury. That assist number is the differentiator. Most centers in this range do not move the ball at that level, and it matters for second-unit stability and half-court organization.
The problem is availability at the worst time. Nurkic is out for the rest of the season due to nose surgery, which ends his year at 41 games. That does not erase the production, but it will shape the contract structure teams are willing to offer. He is also a finishing big, not a floor spacer, so the fit is roster-dependent. If a team lacks shooting, he compresses spacing. If a team has perimeter shooting, he can be a functional hub.
Contract-wise, Nurkic is on $19.4 million in 2025-26 and will be an unrestricted free agent in 2026. At 31, he is not getting long-term security unless a team is buying a specific role and is comfortable with the mobility limitations in switch-heavy playoff series.
What I think happens: he signs a short deal, likely 2 years, $18.0–$26.0 million, with protections on Year 2. The likely buyers are teams that want a big body, rebounding, and passing, and can cover for him defensively with scheme and personnel: Nuggets, Lakers, Warriors, Raptors.
8. Nick Richards
2026-27 Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
Nick Richards is a low-cost center option whose value is straightforward: size, finishing, and basic rim protection, without creation responsibilities. Now with the Bulls after being traded at the deadline, Richards is averaging 4.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 0.3 assists, shooting 49.6% from the field. The numbers are small because the role is small. He is not being used as a focal point and he is not asked to pass. Teams evaluating him are buying a backup 5 who can hold minutes without mistakes.
The contract path is clean. Richards earns $5.0 million in 2025-26 and is scheduled to reach unrestricted free agency in 2026. That matters because the center market is usually about minimums and exceptions, and Richards is the type teams try to sign early once they miss on top targets: younger than the typical veteran fallback, with enough size to survive regular-season volume.
His limitations are also clear. The assist number tells you he is not a connector. If he is forced into short-roll reads and decision-making, the offense will bog down. Defensively, he is more “in the paint” than “cover ground,” so the best fit is a team that plays conservative pick-and-roll coverage and values defensive rebounding.
What I think happens: he signs a modest multi-year backup deal, likely 2 years, $10.0–$14.0 million, with a team option in Year 2. The most logical fits are teams that need reliable regular-season center minutes without paying starter prices: Lakers, Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets.
7. Mo Wagner
2026-27 Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
Mo Wagner is a bench scoring big who gives you offense in a limited role. The numbers reflect that. He is at 8.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 0.8 assists per game, with 50.0% from the field. His value is simple: screens, quick finishes, and just enough range to punish a center who sits in the paint. The shot is not a gimmick. He is taking real attempts and making enough that defenses have to account for him.
The contract side is clean. He is on a one-year, $5.0 million contract and is set to reach unrestricted free agency in 2026. In a weak center class, that matters. Teams will be looking for centers who can survive regular-season minutes without being a total offensive zero, and Wagner is one of the few true “available” players who checks that box.
There are two constraints that will define his market. First, he is not a defensive anchor. If a team needs rim protection, he is not solving that. Second, he is a matchup player in the playoffs. Against teams that hunt bigs in space, he needs help behind him or he gets pulled off the floor. That caps the ceiling of offers even if the offense is useful.
What I think happens: he signs early for backup money to return to the Magic, because the supply is thin and the role is easy to plug in. The most likely range is 2 years, $14.0–$19.0 million, with a team option in Year 2.
6. Deandre Ayton
2026-27 Contract Status: $8.1 million (Player Option)
Deandre Ayton’s situation is about fit and leverage more than production. He is still putting up starter output with the Lakers: 13.0 points and 8.4 rebounds per game while shooting 66.5% from the field. The problem is role definition.
Reporting this season framed him as not being the long-term center answer next to the Lakers’ current core, and Ayton made the friction explicit after a loss recently, saying the role they want is not the role he sees for himself: “They’re trying to make me Clint Capela. I’m not no Clint Capela.”
That’s the tension driving a potential exit. The practical part is the option. Ayton has an $8.1 million player option for 2026-27. In a weak center market, that number is favorable for him even if the fit is imperfect, because it protects his value and keeps him in the “starter-capable” salary lane without needing the league to prove it in July. That’s why there are doubts about the relationship, but the expectation around the league is still that he opts in.
What I think happens: he picks up the $8.1 million option, as I don’t think many teams will show much interest, then the Lakers revisit the long-term center question through trades rather than free agency.
5. Mitchell Robinson
2026-27 Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
Mitchell Robinson is the cleanest “specialist starter” in the 2026 center group. The production is narrow but valuable: 5.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 0.9 assists per game while shooting 69.4% from the field. He creates extra possessions with rebounding, finishes at the rim, and gives real rim protection without needing touches. That profile matters more in a weak market because teams looking for defense at the 5 do not have many unrestricted options.
His contract situation is also simple. He is on an expiring deal at roughly $13.0 million and is lined up for unrestricted free agency in 2026. The Knicks drafted him in the second round of the 2018 NBA Draft, and the expectation so far is that he will return to the team on a new deal.
The limitations are known: no spacing, low passing, and he can be matchup-sensitive if opponents force him into space repeatedly. That does not kill his market because his strengths are scarce. The actual pricing variable is availability and minutes. Teams will pay for playoff utility, but they will protect themselves on years and guarantees.
What I think happens: the Knicks push to keep him because replacing his rebounding and rim protection without cap room is hard. If he hits the market, the likely deal is 2 years, $22.0–$30.0 million, with Year 2 protected (team option or partial guarantee).
4. Isaiah Hartenstein
2026-27 Contract Status: $28.5 million (Team Option)
Isaiah Hartenstein has played like a winning starting center this season. The production is starter-level and efficient: 10.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, shooting 64.5% from the field. The assists separate him from most rim-running 5s. He keeps possessions alive with offensive rebounding, he makes quick reads from the elbows, and he does not need touches to impact the game.
The contract is the entire 2026 angle. Hartenstein is on a three-year, $87.0 million deal with the Thunder, and the 2026-27 season is a $28.5 million team option. If the option is picked up, he is not on the market. If it is declined, he becomes one of the best centers who could actually reach unrestricted free agency.
The evaluation is clean. He is a paint finisher with real passing and rebounding. He is not a floor spacer, so he needs perimeter shooting around him, but that is true for most centers in this class. His defensive value is more positioning and physicality than pure shot-blocking, which fits better with a roster that already has length and athleticism behind the ball.
What I think happens: the Thunder pick up the $28.5 million option. The center market is thin, and his regular-season baseline is high enough that declining him would create a new problem immediately. If the Thunder ever let him reach the market, the teams with the strongest incentive would be contenders that need a stable starting 5 and can pay: Lakers, Warriors, and Raptors-type roster builds depending on cap structure.
3. Nikola Vucevic
2026-27 Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
Nikola Vucevic is an expiring veteran center whose value is offense, rebounding, and passing, not rim protection. This season, he is at 16.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, with 49.9% from the field and 36.8% from three. That combination still has an impact because most available centers either score or space. Vucevic can do both at usable volume, and he keeps the ball moving as a hub big.
He is now with the Celtics after the deadline deal that sent him from the Bulls. The contract side is simple: $21.5 million this season, then unrestricted free agency. There is no option layer and no matching rights. He can be signed directly.
The limitations define the market. At 35, he is not a long-term center solution, and teams will protect themselves on years. Defensively, he is not built for heavy switching, so the best fit is a team that plays more conservative coverage and has point-of-attack defense in front of him. Offensively, he fits almost anywhere because he can space to the arc, punish smaller matchups, and keep second units organized with passing.
What I think happens: he signs a short deal with a contender that needs frontcourt offense and regular-season stability, likely 2 years, $28.0–$36.0 million. Celtics re-signing him is on the table if the role stays consistent, but the broader market is also there because there are not many centers who can give you 16 and 9 with real spacing in a weak class.
2. Walker Kessler
2026-27 Contract Status: $7.1 Million (Qualifying Offer)
Walker Kessler is the rare center in this class who looks like a real starting 5 and still has upside. The 2025-26 line was dominant and efficient until his season ended due to a shoulder injury: 14.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game, shooting 70.3% from the field.
That profile in a weak center market is huge, even if his year was barely a 5-game sample, because it answers two problems at once: rim finishing and defensive control of the paint. The assist number is also important. Most rim-running centers do not generate 3.0 assists, which raises his value in half-court offense when the ball has to move through the 5.
The contract piece is where 2026 gets complicated. Kessler is lined up for restricted free agency, and the Jazz have the matching rights if they tender the qualifying offer, listed at $7.1 million. That structure usually favors the incumbent team, but there has been real reporting that negotiations could be tense. Tim MacMahon discussed the possibility of a difficult restricted process, and multiple outlets have framed it as a potential standoff on valuation.
On-court, the evaluation is not subtle. He is a paint center who can anchor a defense and finish efficiently. He is not a spacer, so lineup construction still matters, but that is true for most centers teams will actually be able to sign in 2026. The question is price tier: does he get paid like a top-10 starting center immediately, or does the restricted market keep it closer to “good starter” money with protections.
What I think happens: the Jazz retain him, either by matching an offer sheet or agreeing to a deal before it gets messy. The likely number is 4 years, $92.0–$112.0 million, with the annual value around the low $20 million tier. If another team forces the issue, it will be a cap-space team that needs a long-term starting center and is willing to front-load to make matching painful.
1. Jalen Duren
2026-27 Contract Status: $9.6 Million (Qualifying Offer)
Jalen Duren is the best center in this class because he is an All-Star producing for a championship contender at 22, and he plays a role that scales in the playoffs: rim pressure, rebounding, and physicality. In 2025-26, Duren is at 18.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game, shooting 63.6% from the field. That is a clean double-double with elite finishing efficiency for volume. He is also showing up in big moments; he had him at 25 points and 14 rebounds in the Thunder win, which fits the season-long trend of real interior production.
Contract mechanics shape everything. Duren is headed for restricted free agency, and his 2026-27 qualifying offer is listed at $9.6 million after meeting starter criteria. His 2025-26 salary is $6.5 million, which is irrelevant to the next deal other than emphasizing how under-market his current slot is. Because the Pistons will have matching rights, this is not a normal free agency chase. If a team wants him, it has to make the Pistons uncomfortable with structure and price.
The market signal is already out there. The overall expectations of a deal sit in the five-year, $185.0 million range when he hits restricted free agency. That number is aggressive, but the logic is consistent: young, productive centers almost never reach true availability, and the 2026 unrestricted center pool is thin. If multiple cap-space teams miss on other targets, Duren becomes the best “spend money on a long-term starter” option.
What I think happens: the Pistons keep him, and it costs them real starter-max tier money. My best prediction is 5 years, $170.0–$200.0 million, with the final number driven by how hard an offer sheet pushes the annual value and guarantees. The most realistic way he changes teams is via a trade, not an offer sheet, because matching rights make a clean free-agency steal unlikely.
