Every NBA Team’s Worst First-Round Playoff Matchup

The NBA playoffs are almost here and every title contender is looking forward to competing at a high level to make their audiences proud. The Boston Celtics are the best team in the NBA this season with a 49-14 record, but even they will have a team they would rather avoid instead of playing in the first round of the playoffs. 

We have collected every NBA team’s worst first-round matchup, based on history and also what has transpired this season. Based on the current NBA standings with 10 teams per conference (including the 7th-10th play-in sides), here is every team’s worst matchup in the first round of the 2024 playoffs.

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Miami Heat

The Boston Celtics’ worst-case scenario for a first-round playoff matchup is facing the Miami Heat. This preference stems from the recent history between the two teams, particularly in last year’s playoffs where the Heat took a commanding 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. Despite a remarkable effort from the Celtics to claw back and tie the series 3-3, they ultimately fell short of making history by completing the comeback.

With a playoff record standing at 17-20 against the Heat, the Celtics are understandably wary of facing a team that has historically posed challenges for them in the postseason. Given this history and recent matchups, Boston would likely prefer to avoid Miami in the first round and instead face a different opponent where their chances for success may be perceived as more favorable. The only way Boston plays Miami is if the Heat loses the first play-in game against the Pacers and goes on to win the last one against the Bulls/Hawks which makes them the eighth seed.

Milwaukee Bucks

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Indiana Pacers

The Milwaukee Bucks’ least favorable scenario for a first-round playoff matchup would be against the Indiana Pacers. This preference is based on recent encounters where the Bucks lost by a significant 11-point margin in the mid-season tournament, and have only one game against them in five meetings.

The Bucks have experienced firsthand the challenges posed by a young, athletic, and well-coached Indiana team. Their combination of youth and athleticism could present matchup problems for the Bucks, making them a potentially difficult opponent to face in the opening round of the playoffs. If the Pacers keep their 7th seed and win the play-in game, they will play the Bucks.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: New York Knicks

The Cleveland Cavaliers’ worst-case scenario for a first-round playoff matchup would be against the New York Knicks. This preference stems from the Cavaliers’ previous playoff experience against the Knicks, where they were eliminated in the first round last year. Furthermore, the Knicks have improved since then, bolstering their roster with the addition of OG Anunoby.

If the Knicks drop games and fall to the 6th seed (1.0 game away), they would potentially face the Cavaliers, who are currently favored for the third seed. Given the Cavaliers’ history against the Knicks and the latter’s strengthened roster, facing them in the first round could pose a significant challenge for Cleveland.

New York Knicks

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Philadelphia 76ers

The New York Knicks’ least favorable scenario for a first-round playoff matchup would be against the Philadelphia 76ers. This preference is rooted in the potential dominance of the 76ers, particularly if Joel Embiid is healthy for the playoffs. With the race for playoff seeding in the Eastern Conference being tightly contested, the Knicks, currently within the range (2.0 games behind) of the 3rd to 8th seeds, could find themselves matched up against the 76ers.

Facing a team led by Embiid, supported by players like Tyrese Maxey, would pose a significant challenge for the Knicks at the start of the postseason, potentially making it a tough opening series for New York.

Orlando Magic

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: New York Knicks

The Orlando Magic’s least favorable scenario for a first-round playoff matchup would be against the New York Knicks, especially after a recent loss where they fell by a significant 24-point margin. This preference is underscored by the Knicks’ potential lineup featuring key players like Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and OG Anunoby, who could pose substantial challenges for the Magic.

The Knicks’ ability to deploy a stifling defense further compounds the Magic’s concerns, particularly considering Orlando’s struggles with scoring, as evidenced by their 27th-ranked offense. Should the Knicks and Magic finish in the 4th and 5th positions respectively in the Eastern Conference, a matchup between them in the first round could prove to be a daunting task for Orlando, given the recent performance disparities and the potential defensive prowess of the Knicks.

Philadelphia 76ers

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks

The Philadelphia 76ers’ least desirable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Milwaukee Bucks. This preference arises from the formidable challenge posed by the Bucks, who are regarded as a nightmare matchup for most teams, including the 76ers. Should Joel Embiid not be fully healthy, the task of containing players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard would become significantly more challenging, especially for a player like Tyrese Maxey.

Even with Embiid’s return, the Bucks boast enough superstar talent to compete head-to-head with the 76ers. Furthermore, the lack of playoff meetings between the two teams since 1985 suggests unfamiliarity, potentially favoring the Bucks, who possess more championship experience and talent depth compared to the 76ers.

Indiana Pacers

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Boston Celtics

The Indiana Pacers’ least favorable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Boston Celtics. This scenario would arise if the Pacers were to fall to the 8th seed and subsequently lose their play-in game. Facing the Celtics would present a formidable challenge for the Pacers, especially considering Boston’s dominance. Indiana’s roster, led by players like Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, may lack the firepower and depth to overcome the Celtics this season.

Additionally, in order to even reach a matchup against Boston, the Pacers would need to defeat tough opponents like the Chicago Bulls or the Atlanta Hawks, further complicating their playoff path. Overall, facing the Celtics in the first round would likely prove to be a daunting task for the Pacers given their current roster makeup and potential seeding scenario.

Miami Heat

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks

The Miami Heat’s least favorable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Milwaukee Bucks. Despite their success against the Bucks in the playoffs last year, the addition of Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee roster adds a new dimension to the matchup, making it more challenging for the Heat this time around.

The Bucks have also proven their strength with a recent victory over the Heat in a mid-season tournament game, suggesting a competitive series if they were to meet in the playoffs. However, the Heat’s path to facing the Bucks would require them to secure the 7th seed and win the play-in game, potentially resulting in a more exhausting playoff run. Overall, facing the Bucks in the first round would present a tough challenge for the Heat, given the talent and depth of the Milwaukee roster.

Chicago Bulls

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Boston Celtics

The Chicago Bulls’ least desirable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Boston Celtics. In the event that the Bulls lose their play-in game and then defeat the Atlanta Hawks, they would likely face the Celtics in the first round. This scenario presents a challenging matchup for the Bulls, especially considering the absence of Zach LaVine for the season due to injury.

With LaVine sidelined, the Bulls would rely heavily on players like DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic to compete against the Celtics. However, the Celtics’ talent and depth, combined with the Bulls’ depleted roster, could potentially result in a difficult series for Chicago, likely ending in a sweep.

Atlanta Hawks

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Boston Celtics

The Atlanta Hawks’ least favorable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Boston Celtics. Last year, the Hawks experienced a challenging series against the Celtics in the first round, ultimately losing the series. While the Celtics allowed the Hawks to win two games by easing off the pedal, facing them again in the playoffs would still present a formidable challenge.

If the Hawks were to finish with the 10th seed and win their play-in game, setting up a first-round matchup against the Celtics, it could potentially result in a one-sided series. Given their previous struggles and the likelihood of being swept, facing the Celtics in the first round would be the worst-case scenario for the Hawks.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Golden State Warriors

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s least favorable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Golden State Warriors. With a historical playoff record of 8-9 against the Warriors, the Thunder have experienced challenges when facing this opponent in the postseason. Additionally, the Warriors have demonstrated their playoff experience by defeating talented teams like the Kings in the first round last year.

Given the Warriors’ ability to leverage their experience and talent, the Thunder could face difficulties in a series against them. While other matchups may offer the Thunder a more manageable path, facing the Warriors in the first round would present a formidable challenge for Oklahoma City.

Denver Nuggets

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Sacramento Kings

The Denver Nuggets’ least desirable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Sacramento Kings. Despite the Nuggets’ strengths, the Kings have demonstrated their ability to compete against them, winning three out of four matchups this season. With a potent offensive lineup and an elite big man akin to Nikola Jokic in their roster, the Kings pose a significant threat to the Nuggets.

Matching firepower with firepower, the Kings could make for a challenging opponent for Denver in the first round. The way they could potentially meet is if the Nuggets and Kings finish with the 4th and 5th seeds in the West, leading to an exciting showdown that could last at least six games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Los Angeles Lakers

The Minnesota Timberwolves’ least desirable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Los Angeles Lakers. If the Lakers secure the 7th seed and win the play-in tournament, they will face the Timberwolves in the first round. The duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis presents a formidable challenge for any team, especially in a short series like the first round.

This matchup becomes even more daunting for the Timberwolves if their key big men, including Karl-Anthony Towns, are not healthy. With significant pressure on Anthony Edwards to carry the team, facing off against the Lakers’ star duo would be a tall order for Minnesota. Adding to the challenge is the Timberwolves’ historical playoff record against the Lakers, standing at 4-8.

Los Angeles Clippers

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Dallas Mavericks

The Los Angeles Clippers’ least desirable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Dallas Mavericks. If the Nuggets and Clippers were to finish 4th and 5th in the Western Conference standings, it would set up a challenging matchup for Los Angeles. The presence of superstar Nikola Jokic for the Nuggets presents a significant challenge, particularly his dominance in the post where the Clippers may struggle to contain him, especially with Ivica Zubac as their primary big man. 

Additionally, the Nuggets boast large and athletic defenders who can potentially limit the offensive output of Clippers’ stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Mavericks’ success against the Clippers this season, holding a 3-1 record, further underscores the challenges that Los Angeles could face in this matchup.

New Orleans Pelicans

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Dallas Mavericks

The New Orleans Pelicans’ least favorable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Dallas Mavericks. This scenario would present significant challenges for the Pelicans, particularly in terms of facing star power. With Luka Doncic leading the Mavericks, widely regarded as one of the best players in the league, and his previous experience leading his team to the Western Conference Finals, the Pelicans would face a daunting task.

Additionally, the Mavericks could potentially feature Kyrie Irving, who brings his own championship experience and confidence to the matchup. If the Mavericks were to secure a higher seed, such as 4th or 5th, and face the Pelicans in the first round, it would pose significant trouble for New Orleans.

Phoenix Suns

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Denver Nuggets

The Phoenix Suns’ least favorable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Denver Nuggets. This scenario would prove troublesome for the Suns, particularly if they maintain the 6th seed and face the Nuggets, who secure the third seed. The Suns faced a similar challenge last year in the playoffs, losing to the Nuggets in the second round, and history could repeat itself this year. 

Nikola Jokic’s dominance poses a significant challenge for the Suns, especially with the inconsistency of Phoenix’s center, Jusuf Nurkic, against him. Additionally, the Nuggets boast better depth compared to the Suns, which could exploit a potential weakness for Phoenix.

Sacramento Kings

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Los Angeles Clippers

The Sacramento Kings’ least favorable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Los Angeles Clippers. Should the Kings secure the 6th seed, they would face the formidable Clippers in the first round. This matchup presents significant challenges for the Kings, especially considering their two previous losses against the Clippers.

While the Kings boast two star players, they lack the depth of star power that the Clippers possess. The Clippers’ superteam status, featuring a trio of stars, makes them a daunting opponent for any team in the playoffs. Given the Kings’ struggles against the Clippers and the latter’s superior star power, facing the Clippers in the first round would be the worst-case scenario for Sacramento.

Dallas Mavericks

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Denver Nuggets

The Dallas Mavericks’ least favorable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Denver Nuggets. If the Mavericks secure their play-in spot and face the Nuggets, who finish second in the Western Conference, they will face a daunting challenge. The Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokic, pose a significant threat to the Mavericks, especially considering their dominance in the post.

The Mavericks lack elite big men who can effectively defend against Jokic, even with additions like Daniel Gafford. As a result, facing the Nuggets in the first round would present a tough matchup for Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Jokic’s dominance in the post could prove to be a decisive factor, making the Nuggets the worst possible first-round matchup for Dallas.

Los Angeles Lakers

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Denver Nuggets

The Los Angeles Lakers’ least desirable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Denver Nuggets. Should the Nuggets finish second and the Lakers secure the 7th or 8th seed through the play-in tournament, they would face a challenging matchup against Denver. The Lakers have struggled against the Nuggets this season, losing all three matchups, including being swept in last year’s Western Conference Finals.

Nikola Jokic’s dominance, particularly in comparison to Lakers’ star Anthony Davis, poses a significant challenge for Los Angeles. Additionally, the Nuggets’ athleticism and defensive capabilities, including players like Aaron Gordon, could pose problems for the Lakers’ aging star LeBron James. Facing the Nuggets in the first round would therefore present a formidable challenge for the Lakers, potentially making it their worst-case scenario for the playoffs.

Golden State Warriors

Worst Possible First-Round Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Golden State Warriors’ least favorable first-round playoff matchup would be against the Minnesota Timberwolves. If the Timberwolves regain the top seed in the West and the Warriors win their play-in games, they will face Minnesota in the first round. This matchup presents challenges for the Warriors, particularly considering their winless record (0-2) against the Timberwolves this season.

The Timberwolves possess shooting and pace similar to the Warriors but have the added advantage of size with Rudy Gobert dominating in the paint. The energetic and momentum-driven style of the Timberwolves could make it difficult for the Warriors to keep up, especially given their struggles against Minnesota this season. 

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