The Hawks host the Warriors at State Farm Arena on Saturday, March 21, at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Hawks come in at 38-32, seventh in the East, and 19-16 at home. The Warriors are 33-37, 10th in the West, and 14-22 on the road.
The recent form is also tilted toward the home side. The Hawks just saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 117-95 loss to the Rockets, while the Warriors are coming off a 115-101 loss to the Pistons and have dropped seven of their last eight.
This matchup has already happened once, and the Hawks took it 124-111. The outline of the game was clear even then. The Hawks had more balance, more paint pressure, and more clean possessions.
Jalen Johnson has been the engine of the Hawks’ season, putting up 22.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game. CJ McCollum has given them another steady scoring source with 18.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists.
For the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski has produced 13.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while Draymond Green is at 8.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. Stephen Curry is out again, which completely changes the shape of this game and puts even more decision-making pressure on Green and the secondary guards.
This is the kind of game the Hawks should control. They are healthier, deeper on the perimeter, and far cleaner offensively right now. The Warriors still have enough structure to make this annoying, but they are running out of reliable shot creation.
Injury Report
Hawks
RayJ Dennis: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Keshon Gilbert: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Asa Newell: Doubtful (G League – On Assignment)
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Seth Curry: Out (left adductor strain)
Al Horford: Out (right soleus strain)
Moses Moody: Out (right wrist sprain)
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (left low back tightness)
Draymond Green: Questionable (left low back injury management)
Malevy Leons: Questionable (right wrist sprain)
De’Anthony Melton: Questionable (left knee injury management)
Gary Payton II: Questionable (right knee soreness)
Quinten Post: Questionable (right foot injury management)
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The Hawks have the stronger all-around team profile, and the balance is what stands out. They own a 115.2 offensive rating, which ranks 15th in the league, but the more important number is the defense. Their 114.1 defensive rating ranks 11th, which gives them a sturdier baseline than the Warriors right now. Add in 117.7 points per game, and this is a team that has enough offense without having to completely sell out on that end. The Warriors, by comparison, sit at a 115.0 offensive rating and a 114.7 defensive rating, so the season-long efficiency gap is not huge, but the health gap is. With no Stephen Curry and no Jimmy Butler, the Warriors do not have the same access to those numbers on a given night.
The Hawks also play a style that should stress this version of the Warriors. They lead the league in assists at 30.3 per game, they shoot 36.7% from three, which ranks sixth, and they play at a 101.94 pace, which ranks second. That is a strong combination because it means they can beat you in two ways. They can shred a rotating defense with ball movement, or they can speed the game up and make your depth hold together over 48 minutes. The Warriors still move the ball well themselves at 29.0 assists per game, third in the league, but asking a short-handed road team on the second night of a back-to-back to keep up with that tempo is a tough sell.
Then there is the possession battle. The Hawks average 9.4 steals per game, fifth in the league, and the Warriors are giving it away 15.5 times per game, the seventh-highest mark in the NBA. That is a bad combination for the road team, especially after it just committed 26 turnovers in Detroit. Without Curry to calm the floor and without Butler to bully his way into half-court advantages, the Warriors become much easier to speed up. That is where Johnson’s playmaking and the Hawks’ wing depth should take over. If the Hawks turn live-ball turnovers into transition chances, this can get away from the Warriors quickly.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors still have a real case, and it starts with defensive activity. Their 114.7 defensive rating ranks 14th, they are second in the league in steals at 9.8 per game, and they still play fast at a 99.25 pace, in the mid-tier league-wise. Even with all the missing bodies, that gives them a path. They do not need to be prettier than the Hawks. They need to make the game messy, create deflections, and turn this into one of those frantic nights where structure breaks down, and the better offensive team never gets comfortable. If Draymond Green plays, that possibility becomes much more real because he is still the one Warrior who can organize the chaos rather than drown in it.
The Hawks also have one weak point the Warriors can attack, and that is free-throw pressure. The Hawks are only at 21.6 free-throw attempts per game, which ranks 24th in the league. That matters because teams that do not live at the line are more vulnerable to defensive variance. If the jumpers are a little off, there is not always a fallback. The Warriors are not a dominant rim-protection team, but they are still disruptive enough to drag opponents into lower-efficiency stretches. And while the Hawks do share the ball better than anyone, they also commit 14.2 turnovers per game, which is 12th-most in the league. That opens the door for the Warriors to steal extra possessions without having to win a pure half-court talent battle.
There is also a smaller offensive gap here than people might assume at first glance. The Hawks sit 15th in offensive rating at 115.2. The Warriors are 18th at 115.0. That is basically the same neighborhood. The difference is not that one team is a powerhouse and the other cannot score. The difference is who is available to create under pressure. If Green is available and Brandin Podziemski can handle the first wave of defensive pressure, the Warriors can still generate enough clean looks to hang around. They move the ball, they push pace, and they still have enough shooting volume to make a game weird. The Warriors do not need to be better for 48 minutes. They need to be disruptive enough for 12 or 15.
X-Factors
Dyson Daniels is a huge swing piece for the Hawks. He is at 11.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. Those are not loud numbers in a star sense, but they matter in a matchup like this because Daniels can pressure the ball, rebound his position, and keep the offense flowing without stopping it. Against a short-handed backcourt, his size and activity should matter all night.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is the other one. He has delivered 20.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists while shooting 39.0% from three this season. When he gets clean looks, the whole Hawks offense opens up because defenses cannot just load all their help toward Johnson and McCollum. He also comes into this game playing well, which matters. The Warriors can survive a lot. They cannot survive unnecessary help giving up rhythm threes.
Gary Payton II is the chaos piece. He is giving the Warriors 6.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, but the real value is his cutting, point-of-attack defense, and ability to create energy plays out of nowhere. He just scored 14 in Detroit, and those are the kinds of margin possessions the Warriors need to steal if they are going to threaten an upset here.
Prediction
I’m taking the Hawks. The case is just cleaner. They have the better defense, the best passing team in the league at 30.3 assists per game, top-six three-point shooting at 36.7%, and a much healthier rotation coming into a home game against a team on a back-to-back. The Warriors still have enough defensive activity to make this irritating for a while, especially if Green plays, but no Curry, no Butler, and no real frontcourt stability is too much to overcome against a team that has been one of the hottest in the league over the last two weeks. I think the Hawks control the game by the second half and win it with depth and cleaner offense.
Prediction: Hawks 121, Warriors 112
