The Thunder host the Bulls at Paycom Center on Friday, March 27, at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Thunder are 57-16 and first in the West, while the Bulls are 29-43 and 12th in the East. The Thunder are 29-6 at home, and the Bulls are 11-23 on the road.
The Thunder lost 119-109 to the Celtics on Wednesday, which snapped their 12-game winning streak. The Bulls gave up 157 points in a 157-137 loss to the 76ers later that night.
The Thunder won the first meeting 116-108 on March 3, so they lead the season series 1-0. Even that result had a twist, because they got it done without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Gilgeous-Alexander is putting up 31.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.6 assists while shooting 55.7% from the field and 39.3% from three. Chet Holmgren is at 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks.
For the Bulls, Josh Giddey has produced 17.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 9.2 assists, while Anfernee Simons has posted 15.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists.
This is the kind of game the Thunder usually control, but the Bulls still have enough pace and playmaking to make them work if the game gets loose.
Injury Report
Thunder
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (G League on assignment)
Bulls
Zach Collins: Out (right 1st toe sprain)
Noa Essengue: Out (left shoulder surgery)
Jaden Ivey: Out (left patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Yuki Kawamura: Out (G League two-way)
Jalen Smith: Out (right calf strain)
Mac McClung: Out (G League two-way)
Anfernee Simons: Doubtful (left ulnar styloid fracture)
Guerschon Yabusele: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Nick Richards: Questionable (right elbow sprain)
Rob Dillingham: Probable (bilateral patella tendon tendinitis)
Isaac Okoro: Probable (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The biggest edge is the full team profile. The Thunder are first in defensive rating (107.5) and first in net rating (11.0). Their offensive rating sits at 118.5, good for seventh, so this is not just a defense-first contender. It is one of the league’s most complete teams.
The defensive matchup is especially strong for them. They are allowing 107.6 points per game, second in the league, and they are first in opponent effective field goal percentage at 51.6%. They also give up only 41.2 points in the paint, while the Bulls allow 120.8 points per game and rank 23rd in defensive efficiency. That gap matters because the Bulls like to play fast and create good looks with ball movement, but the Thunder are one of the few teams that can speed you up without losing their structure.
Turnovers are another swing area. The Thunder average 9.6 steals per game, fourth in the league, and their turnover percentage is just 11.1%, one of the best marks in the NBA. The Bulls still move the ball well and rank fifth in assists at 28.8 per game, but they also give up 28.5 assists per game, which ranks 28th. Against the Thunder, that is dangerous. Once they get a defense rotating, the possession usually does not recover.
The home setting pushes it further. The Thunder are 29-6 at Paycom Center, 9-1 in their last 10 games, and they have already beaten the Bulls once without Gilgeous-Alexander. The Bulls are 4-6 in their last 10 and have been far less reliable away from home. That does not make the outcome automatic, but it does make the margin for error very small for a short-handed team.
Why The Bulls Have The Advantage
The Bulls’ best path starts with pace and shot volume. They rank second in pace, fifth in assists at 28.8 per game, sixth in fastbreak points at 17.1, and seventh in points in the paint at 52.1. When they are at their best, they do not let opponents settle into a clean defensive script. They run, they kick ahead, and they turn simple paint touches into drive-and-kick possessions.
They also have enough offensive competence to stay in a game if they do not turn it over. Their offensive rating is 113.5, they score 116.3 points per game, and their effective field goal percentage sits at 55.1%. That is not elite, but it is solid enough to punish mistakes. If Giddey is controlling the game and the Bulls get into early offense before the Thunder can load up, there is a workable formula there.
There is also a rebounding angle. The Bulls are second in defensive rebounds at 34.8 per game, while the Thunder rank near the bottom of the league in offensive rebounding rate. If the Bulls finish possessions cleanly and keep the Thunder from stacking extra chances, that removes one of the easiest ways favorites build separation at home.
The final point is simple. The Thunder just came off an emotional loss after a long winning streak, and the Bulls are one of those teams that can make a game weird if you do not meet their energy early. They are not the better team. But if the pace spikes and the assist game holds up, they can at least make the Thunder play a real game into the fourth quarter.
X-Factors
Alex Caruso is a real swing piece for the Thunder because this matchup could be decided by defensive pressure more than raw scoring. He is at 6.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.4 steals. The numbers are modest, but his role is not. If he blows up handoffs, pressures Giddey, and turns one or two live-ball steals into easy points, the Thunder’s control of the game gets much stronger.
Isaiah Hartenstein matters too. He has produced 9.6 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists while shooting 62.2% from the field. Against a Bulls team that wants paint touches and second-side passing, Hartenstein gives the Thunder a stabilizer in the middle. If he wins the glass and keeps the ball moving quickly after rebounds, the Thunder can flatten out the Bulls’ pace advantage.
Rob Dillingham is one to watch for the Bulls if he is able to handle his normal workload. He is at 8.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. The efficiency has not been great, but this is the kind of matchup where his burst matters. If he can get downhill against second units and create a few paint touches without the offense stalling, the Bulls’ bench minutes become much more competitive.
Nick Richards is the other key name. He has put up 9.4 points and 7.6 rebounds in 22.4 minutes per game. If he plays through the elbow issue and gives the Bulls size, rim finishing, and defensive rebounding, they have a better chance to survive the Holmgren-Hartenstein minutes. If he is limited or out, the interior matchup gets even tougher.
Prediction
This should be a Thunder win. The strongest numbers all point the same way: first in defensive rating, first in net rating, second in points allowed, first in opponent effective field goal percentage, and 29-6 at home. The Bulls have enough playmaking and pace to make this watchable, but their 23rd-ranked defense and 27th-ranked points allowed profile are a bad fit against a team this sharp on both ends.
Prediction: Thunder 123, Bulls 109
