The Rockets host the Lakers in Game 4 at Toyota Center on Sunday, April 26, at 9:30 p.m. ET. The Lakers lead the first-round series 3-0 after winning Game 3, 112-108, in overtime. The Rockets were up 101-95 with less than 30 seconds left in regulation, but two late mistakes opened the door for the Lakers to steal the game. No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 deficit, so Game 4 is already an elimination game.
The series numbers are strange because the Rockets have won several physical areas. They are averaging 45.0 rebounds, 50.7 points in the paint, 20.7 second-chance points, and 15.3 fast-break points. The Lakers are at 39.0 rebounds, 41.3 points in the paint, 13.3 second-chance points, and 10.0 fast-break points. But the Lakers have been far cleaner as a shooting team: 51.2% from the field and 46.1% from three, compared to 39.6% from the field and 28.7% from three for the Rockets.
LeBron James leads the Lakers with 25.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists in the series. Marcus Smart has been just as important, averaging 20.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 3.7 steals. For the Rockets, Alperen Sengun is averaging 24.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists, while Amen Thompson is at 19.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists.
Injury Report
Rockets
Kevin Durant: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Lakers
Austin Reaves: Questionable (left oblique muscle strain)
Luka Doncic: Out (left hamstring strain)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets’ advantage is physical pressure. They have scored 44, 54, and 54 points in the paint across the first three games. They are not struggling to get inside. Sengun had 33 points, 16 rebounds, and six assists in Game 3, and Thompson added 26 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, and three blocks. That is the formula. Attack the rim, crash the glass, and make the Lakers defend size and athleticism for 48 minutes.
The Game 3 main factor is not about changing the whole plan. It is about cleaning the final minute. The Rockets led by six with 25.4 seconds left, then committed a turnover, fouled Smart on a 3-point attempt, and gave up James’ tying 3 after another turnover. Ime Udoka called those plays “horrendous mistakes,” and that is exactly what they were. The Rockets did enough to win. They just did not finish the possession game.
Kevin Durant’s status is the other swing point. He missed Game 1 with a right knee contusion, scored 23 points in Game 2, then missed Game 3 with the left ankle sprain. If he plays, the Rockets finally have a late-clock scorer who can take some pressure off Sengun, Thompson, and Reed Sheppard. If he does not, the Rockets have to win another game with a very young closing group.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The Lakers have the advantage because they have punished every Rockets mistake. In Game 3, they turned the final 25 seconds into a rescue mission. Smart made the three free throws, James hit the tying 3, and Smart scored eight of their 11 overtime points. That is not just experience. That is execution under pressure.
The Lakers’ shot-making has also been the biggest separator in the series. Luke Kennard is averaging 21.3 points on 55.3% shooting and 52.9% from three. Smart is shooting 52.9% from the field and 50.0% from three. Rui Hachimura is at 16.3 points on 55.9% shooting and 52.9% from three. The Rockets are winning the paint, but the Lakers are winning the math.
The one clear fix for the Lakers is turnovers. They had 21 in Game 3, and James had eight by himself. That gave the Rockets life and helped create the late six-point hole. If the Lakers protect the ball even at an average level, their shooting efficiency and half-court spacing should be enough to close the series.
X-Factors
Jabari Smith Jr. is the Rockets’ cleanest shooting X-factor. He is averaging 19.3 points and 8.0 rebounds while shooting 12-of-26 from three. In Game 3, he had 24 points and went 6-of-10 from deep. If Durant is limited or out, Smith has to keep giving the Rockets real spacing around Sengun and Thompson.
Reed Sheppard is harder to read. He is averaging 11.3 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, but he is shooting 26.7% from the field and 30.0% from three. Game 3 had both sides: 17 points and seven assists, but also five turnovers, including the late one that led to James’ tying 3. The Rockets need his pace without the loose decisions.
Rui Hachimura has been a quiet problem for the Rockets. He is averaging 16.3 points on strong efficiency, and his Game 3 line was 22 points on 8-of-14 shooting. The Lakers do not need him to create offense. They need him to finish plays, hit corner threes, and punish help defense.
Deandre Ayton is the Lakers’ frontcourt swing. His series line is only 9.0 points and 7.3 rebounds, and Game 3 was rough: two points, six rebounds, and three turnovers. Sengun is winning that matchup. If Ayton cannot give the Lakers more size and better defensive possessions, the Rockets will keep owning the paint.
Prediction
The Rockets are good enough to win Game 4 if Durant plays and they stop throwing away late possessions. They have the size edge, the paint edge, and the offensive rebounding edge. Still, the Lakers have been the better playoff team in the moments that decide games. James is controlling the series, Smart has changed the defensive tone, and the Lakers’ shooting has been too sharp for a Rockets team stuck below 29.0% from three.
Prediction: Lakers 108, Rockets 103
