The Toronto Raptors host the Miami Heat at the Scotiabank Arena on Thursday, April 9, at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The Raptors are 44-35 and sixth in the East with a 22-17 home record, while the Heat are 41-38 and 10th in the East with a 16-23 road record.
The last game these teams played came against each other, with the Raptors picking up a dominant 121-95 win on Tuesday night. Their Thursday night game will be the final matchup between the teams this season, with the Raptors having won the three previous contests.
The Raptors’ forward duo of Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes has proven far too much for the Heat to handle this season. Ingram is averaging 21.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists this season, while Barnes is establishing himself as the best two-way forward in the NBA, averaging 18.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks. Ingram and Barnes combined for 48 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists in the win on Tuesday.
The Heat will hope that Bam Adebayo bounces back after his disappointing seven points in the Tuesday night loss. The center is averaging 20.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists this season. Tyler Herro will be the team’s featured guard, looking to put his 14-point night last time out in the rearview mirror. Herro is averaging 21.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.0 assists this season.
The Heat need to win every game on their schedule while hoping the teams ahead of them mess up to give them a shot at earning a top-six seed. However, it looks like their fate as a Play-In team is secured. On the other hand, the Raptors still need every win possible to ensure their half-game lead over the No. 7 seed improves.
Injury Report
Raptors
Chucky Hepburn: Out (knee)
Heat
Dru Smith: Questionable (foot)
Norman Powell: Questionable (groin)
Nikola Jovic: Out (ankle)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors have made the Heat look like a non-functional offense in their three clashes from this season, with the Heat unable to score over 100 points in any of these games. The Raptors have held the Heat to 39.5 FG%, 35.0 3P%, and forced them to commit 17.3 turnovers per game. If these well-established trends continue into this clash, it’s hard to imagine Toronto struggling in this clash.
The Raptors have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season with the fifth-best defensive rating (112.0). They’re grabbing 8.8 steals per game and 4.9 blocks per game, maintaining consistency on that end. This has been one of the key reasons the Raptors control the fate of the No. 6 seed instead of relying on an opponent ahead of them to lose. They need to win out or wait for the Orlando Magic to screw up, but their future is entirely in their control.
Their defensive strength has been apparent in every game against the Heat this season. However, there are two sides to the game. The Raptors are already the second-best assisting team in the NBA this season with 29.5 assists per game, and they’ve averaged 32.0 assists over the three games against the Heat. They’ve shot 48.4% from the field and 35.3% from three, so they have proven they’re decidedly the better team on both ends.
If the Heat wind up ruling out Norman Powell, it’s almost impossible to imagine a situation where the Heat can create consistent offense against the Raptors to win this one. The Raptors have found a strong and steady rhythm as a Playoff-caliber team this season, with this being another opportunity to prove it.
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat could have many conventional advantages on paper based on how they’ve played over the entire season. However, those have not translated on the court against the Raptors even once this season. If there are any advantages the Heat can rely on, Toronto has ensured those get stifled in every encounter this season.
The Heat will have to hope their defense shows up to this battle at a high level. If the offense is going to be struggling anyway, the best the Heat can do is make Toronto feel uncomfortable offensively as well. They gave up 120+ points in their last game, but we’ve seen the Heat hold the Raptors down to 106 points in an earlier game this season as well.
Miami has a 113.4 defensive rating in the NBA (11th best in the NBA), so they’ll hope they can live up to that mark and stop the Raptors from enjoying another effortless offensive night. The Raptors have been an inconsistent offensive unit this season, especially as outside shooters (35.2 3P%, 32.3 3PA), so if the Heat’s defense is up to the task, they could control the tempo of this game.
Even though their offense falters against the Raptors, they are second in the NBA in points per game with 120.4 this season. If they can find their usual offensive production from the available rotation, they’d have a big chance at pulling this win off.
With Miami’s fate as a Play-In team likely secured, they still have an incentive to win their remaining games and climb out of the 9-10 seeds to avoid having to win two games in a row to secure a Playoff spot.
X-Factors
Jakob Poeltl put up 17 points and six rebounds in the win over the Heat last time out, and the Raptors will hope he can replicate that. He handily outplayed Bam Adebayo at center and was incredibly impactful in his minutes. If Poeltl can play at a high level, the Raptors will likely be unstoppable for the Heat.
RJ Barrett had 16 points and eight rebounds in the Tuesday night win, excelling in his role as the team’s third option. His scoring is diverse as he can make an impact on all three levels, while also having a high defensive motor. His efficiency leaves much to be desired, but as long as he can disrupt the Heat on defense and contribute offensively, he will play a role in a potential win.
Andrew Wiggins was the most impactful Heat player in their last game, leading the team in scoring with 24 points. This reiterates the fact that he’s one of the Heat’s most important x-factors. While his big night didn’t translate into a win for the Heat on Tuesday, a repeat performance might bring them even closer to one on Thursday. He’s averaging 15.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists this season.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. will have to step up offensively if the team is without Norman Powell in this clash. Jaquez has been a strong sixth man for the franchise all season, averaging 15.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, bringing versatile scoring and effort-led defense in his minutes. He’s a typical Heat culture player, and he should have the opportunity to break out against the Raptors after averaging just 13.0 points in three games against them this season.
Prediction
There is no cause to believe that this game will be the one where the Heat magically figure out everything they lack in this matchup against the Raptors. Unless there’s a significant outside shooting swing in Miami’s favor, it’s hard to see how they can consistently generate strong offense against a defensive unit that’s had their number all season. This should be competitive, but the Raptors have an edge on the season and have the better momentum heading into this clash.
Prediction: Raptors 111, Heat 99
