Predicting The Milwaukee Bucks’ Moves Before The Trade Deadline

Predicting what the Milwaukee Bucks will do before the trade deadline, from staying firm on Giannis to exploring potential star upgrades.

12 Min Read
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Bucks are heading into the February 5 trade deadline with their season sitting on a knife’s edge.

They’re 18-25 and currently 11th in the East, which is basically the worst place you can be if you’re trying to sell “contender” internally. And the recent stretch hasn’t helped. They beat the Hawks 112-110 on January 19 to snap a skid, then got punched in the mouth by the Thunder in a 122-102 loss on January 21.

The numbers also make the pressure obvious. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still playing like an MVP-level force at 28.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game, which means the Bucks don’t have the luxury of drifting.

Kyle Kuzma, the big swing replacement for Khris Middleton, is at 12.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, and the Bucks have needed more consistent two-way help around Giannis than they’ve actually gotten.

So this deadline feels less like “let’s add a nice bench piece” and more like “pick a direction and commit.” The league deadline is February 5 at 3 p.m. ET, and the Bucks can’t afford to waste it with half-measures if they want to climb back into the real playoff mix.

 

The Bucks Don’t Move Giannis At All

The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade stuff is going to keep getting regurgitated because the Bucks are hanging around the play-in line and the league is bored. But the important part is what Giannis actually said when he finally got a direct chance to shut it down.

After the loss to the Warriors, Giannis told Sam Amick of The Athletic that there will “never” be a moment where he asks the Bucks to trade him, flat-out saying it’s “not in my nature.” That is not a vague “we’ll see” answer. That is the cleanest possible public statement a superstar can make without signing an extension on the spot.

And it lines up with what the Bucks are doing. They’re 18-25, 11th in the East, and the season has been messy, but this is still a franchise that believes it can stabilize without detonating the core. Giannis is still posting monster production, 28.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game, with a ridiculous 64.7% from the field. If you have that, you don’t trade him in-season unless the player forces your hand.

Also, contract dynamics matter, which is why all the “deadline trade” talk is mostly noise. Giannis is making $54.1 million this season, including a player option later in the deal. That’s not a contract you casually move in February, even if you wanted to.

So here’s the prediction part: the Bucks won’t move Giannis because they can’t justify it internally, they don’t need to, and Giannis himself just gave the organization public cover to keep going. The deadline tension is real, but it’s going to show up in smaller moves, not the nuclear one.

 

Ja Morant Doesn’t Land With The Bucks

If you want the quickest way to tell a trade rumor is mostly fantasy, it’s when the “fit” sounds fun but the price tag reads like a franchise mortgage.

That’s where the Ja Morant-to-Bucks idea is landing. There has been real reporting that the Bucks have canvassed the market looking for upgrades around Giannis, and Morant’s name has floated as a theoretical star swing. But the reporting on what the Grizzlies would actually want is exactly why I don’t buy it happening.

Michael Scotto reported that in Morant trade discussions, the Grizzlies have desired Ryan Rollins plus a future first-round pick. That’s the part that kills it for me. Rollins is the kind of cheap, ascending guard the Bucks actually need, and a far-out first is basically the one real chip a capped-out team has left.

Then you layer in the other side of the reporting, which is even louder. Chris Haynes has said the Grizzlies have made it clear to teams they are “very comfortable” keeping Morant past the deadline. That’s not a negotiating wink, that’s the Grizzlies telling you, “Call if you want, but we’re not desperate.”

Morant himself has also been explicit. After returning in London, he said there should be no doubt he wants to keep playing for the Grizzlies, and reports framed it as Morant pushing back on the noise while noting he’s under contract through 2027-28.

So what’s left for the Bucks? A fun headline, and not much else. They’d have to pay a premium, they’d have to match a huge salary number, and they’d be betting on a star whose own team is signaling it’s fine standing pat.

My call: the Bucks poke around, realize the ask is nasty, and back off. Ja Morant ends up being a “summer watch” more than a deadline reality.

 

Adding A Wing To Help Giannis Out

Here’s the lane where the Bucks can actually do something without turning the rest of the decade into rubble.

They’ve been linked in “star hunting” conversations because when you’re 11th with Giannis still playing like a superhero, you’re going to get attached to every big name on the board. Michael Porter Jr. chatter is a good example of that broader theme. But if the Bucks don’t want to pay the Morant price, and they don’t want to stack even more massive money on the books, the logical pivot is a wing who can score and survive physically in playoff basketball.

That’s where Miles Bridges pops.

Sam Amick reported that Bridges has drawn “significant” trade interest, and the Bucks were explicitly listed among the teams showing interest. Bridges is putting up 18.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists this season. That’s real production, and it’s the exact type of secondary punch the Bucks badly need when opponents load up on Giannis.

Contract-wise, Bridges is also in the sweet spot for deadline trades, a very tradable $25 million this season, with $22.8 million fully guaranteed next season. That’s big enough to matter, but not so big that it blocks every other path.

Now, your proposed framework is spicy:

Hornets Receive: Kyle Kuzma, Gary Harris, 2032 first-round pick

Bucks Receive: Miles Bridges

The problem is, one report flagged that the Hornets have “no interest” in taking back Kuzma in a Bridges deal. Kuzma’s money is still hefty, about $22.4 million in base salary this season. So if the Bucks want Bridges, Kuzma might have to end up rerouted to a third team, or the Bucks might add extra second-rounders to entice the Hornets a little more.

But the basketball point stays the same. Bridges is a wing who can actually create some offense without Giannis spoon-feeding him, and he gives the Bucks a stronger “second-side” threat than what they’ve had most nights. Currently posting 18.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists this season, it’s not the loudest move. It’s just the one that makes sense.

 

A Quiet Deadline That Will Risk Giannis Leaving

This is the section Bucks fans won’t enjoy, but it’s the one I believe most.

The Bucks are walking into a deadline where every move is being judged through one lens: “Will Giannis sign the next extension?” And that question is real because Giannis is eligible for a massive extension in the future, and he also has contractual leverage later in the deal.

The reporting and commentary ecosystem has basically framed it like this: if Giannis doesn’t extend, the Bucks eventually get forced into the hardest decision in sports, trade him before you risk losing him. Even without taking the hottest takes literally, the logic is straightforward. The moment a superstar delays the “yes,” the rest of the league starts circling.

That’s why a quiet deadline is plausible. If the Bucks think there’s a non-zero chance Giannis plays this out and keeps options open, the front office might not want to be stuck with more long-term money that becomes toxic if the relationship turns. Giannis is already on a monster salary, $54.1 million this year, with huge numbers behind it. Add more long contracts on top of that, then imagine the “Giannis uncertain” summer, and suddenly your flexibility is gone.

But the knife cuts both ways. If the Bucks do nothing, they’re basically telling Giannis, “We hear the problems, but we’re not fixing them.” When you’re 18-25, and you’re still talking about urgency, that’s a dangerous message to send to a guy who can change the league with one decision.

So yeah, a quiet deadline can be “responsible” from a cap perspective. It can also be the kind of passive choice that makes the nightmare outcome more likely.

 

Final Thoughts

If I’m reading the Bucks correctly, they want optionality more than fireworks. The problem is, optionality doesn’t win games in April, and the Bucks are already running out of runway in the standings.

My opinion: they should not touch the Giannis stuff at the deadline, that’s pure summer business anyway. They also shouldn’t empty the vault for Morant when the Grizzlies are broadcasting they’re comfortable keeping him and the ask is basically Rollins plus a future first.

What they should do is pick one real rotation upgrade that makes Giannis’ life easier, preferably a wing, and live with the fact it won’t look like a superstar headline. Bridges is the right archetype, even if the Kuzma routing is complicated.

Because the worst possible outcome is the Bucks trying to “stay flexible” and accidentally convincing Giannis that the franchise is okay being mediocre around him. That’s how stars leave, not with a trade demand, but with silence.

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Francisco Leiva is a staff writer for Fadeaway World from Buenos Aires, Argentina. He is a recent graduate of the University of Buenos Aires and in 2023 joined the Fadeaway World team. Previously a writer for Basquetplus, Fran has dedicated years to covering Argentina's local basketball leagues and the larger South American basketball scene, focusing on international tournaments.Fran's deep connection to basketball began in the early 2000s, inspired by the prowess of the San Antonio Spurs' big three: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and fellow Argentinian, Manu Ginóbili. His years spent obsessing over the Spurs have led to deep insights that make his articles stand out amongst others in the industry. Fran has a profound respect for the Spurs' fanbase, praising their class and patience, especially during tougher times for the team. He finds them less toxic compared to other fanbases of great franchises like the Warriors or Lakers, who can be quite annoying on social media.An avid fan of Luka Doncic since his debut with Real Madrid, Fran dreams of interviewing the star player. He believes Luka has the potential to become the greatest of all time (GOAT) with the right supporting cast. Fran's experience and drive to provide detailed reporting give Fadeaway World a unique perspective, offering expert knowledge and regional insights to our content.
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