The Nuggets host the Cavaliers at Ball Arena on Monday, February 9, at 6:00 PM ET.
The Cavaliers come in at 32-21 (4th in the East). The Nuggets are 34-19 (3rd in the West).
This is the second meeting of the season. The Cavaliers took the first one 113-108 back on January 2, in a game the Nuggets played without Nikola Jokic.
The Cavaliers just won 132-126 over the Kings in James Harden’s debut, with Harden dropping 23 and Donovan Mitchell going for 35.
The Nuggets are coming off a 136-120 win over the Bulls.
For the Cavaliers, the whole thing is about guard creation: Mitchell (28.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists) and Harden (25.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 8.1 assists).
For the Nuggets, it’s the two-man engine: Jokic (28.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, 10.7 assists) and Jamal Murray (26.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 7.5 assists), even if Murray is a real question mark health-wise tonight.
This one matters because it’s basically the first real “new-look Cavaliers” stress test against the league’s most efficient offense.
Injury Report
Cavaliers
Evan Mobley: Out (left calf strain)
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery – Jones fracture)
Jaylon Tyson: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Dean Wade: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee bone bruise)
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Spencer Jones: Out (concussion protocol)
Murray: Questionable (left hip inflammation)
Jokic: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Christian Braun: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The first and biggest edge is the math: the Nuggets have the No. 1 offense by offensive rating at 122.2. That’s not “pretty good,” that’s “every possession is a problem.”
Then it’s the Jokic effect. With him on the floor this season, the Nuggets are putting up 125.4 points per game as a team in those games, with a ridiculous 51.1% from the field and 40.5% from three. That’s the exact profile that punishes a defense missing a key backline piece like Mobley.
And even if Murray isn’t 100%, the Nuggets still have enough secondary scoring to keep the floor tilted. Cameron Johnson is at 11.8 points per game, and Julian Strawther can hit shots in short bursts. If the Cavaliers have to overload to Jokic early, those kickout threes come fast.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The clean counter is that the Cavaliers can actually win the “shotmaking guard” part of the game, even on the road. Harden plus Mitchell is a real advantage in late-clock possessions, and we already saw it in the Kings game when they closed with pure creation.
They also score at an elite level themselves. The Cavaliers are tied near the top of the league at 119.7 points per game, and they’re doing it without needing to play chaotic.
And the road profile is solid: 15-10 away from home. That matters here because this matchup is going to swing on composure when the Nuggets go on their inevitable runs.
X-Factors
For the Nuggets, Christian Braun is the first swing. His two-way minutes matter a lot in this matchup: 9.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists on the season. If he’s moving well enough to chase the Cavaliers’ guards and still cut behind ball-watching defenders, it steadies the Nuggets’ perimeter defense without killing their spacing.
Julian Strawther is the other Nuggets lever because he’s the “quick points” guy in a game that can swing on one 90-second run. He’s at 10.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and when he hits a couple early threes, it changes how hard the Cavaliers can load up on Nikola Jokic actions. If Strawther is cold, the Nuggets’ non-Jokic minutes get way easier to defend.
For the Cavaliers, Jarrett Allen has to be the anchor with Evan Mobley out. He’s at 14.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and shooting 61.5% from the field, and the job is simple but brutal: finish everything created by the guards, protect the rim without fouling, and survive the wrestling match on the glass. If Allen wins his minutes, the Cavaliers can keep their offense stable even when the pace slows.
Sam Merrill is the spacing swing. He’s at 13.1 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 46.4% from the field, and if he’s getting clean looks off Harden’s passing, the Nuggets can’t load up the paint as aggressively behind Jokic. If Merrill hits early, the Cavaliers’ offense stops feeling like “your turn, my turn.”
Prediction
I’m taking the Nuggets. The Cavaliers’ guard duo is scary, but the Mobley absence plus the Nuggets’ No. 1 offense is a rough combo to bet against, especially if Jokic is close to full-go. The Cavaliers can absolutely make this a clutch game, but over 48 minutes, the Nuggets’ efficiency usually wins out.
Prediction: Nuggets 121, Cavaliers 114
