The Denver Nuggets are playing like a team that’s sick of waiting for “playoff time” to flip the switch. They’re 18-6, sitting 2nd in the West, scoring 125.5 points per game, and they’re on a four-game win streak right now.
The Houston Rockets aren’t some cute upstart either. They’re 16-6, sitting 3rd in the West, and they’ve built a real identity: they score (120.6 points per game), but they also defend at an elite level, giving up just 110.4 points per game, which sits at the very top of the league (2nd).
This matchup is basically offense-on-offense, but with a twist: the Rockets bring the kind of defense that can actually make the Nuggets feel uncomfortable, and the Nuggets have the one guy who makes every defensive game plan look silly anyway.
Injury Report
Nuggets
- Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
- Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
- Julian Strawther: Questionable (lower back injury management)
- DaRon Holmes II: Out (G League, on assignment)
- Curtis Jones: Out (G League, two-way)
- Tamar Bates: Out (G League, two-way)
This is the important part: Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon aren’t just “rotation guys.” They’re two of the Nuggets’ best answers on the wing, the two dudes who take the hardest defensive assignments, crash, run, and let Jokic and Murray breathe.
Rockets
- Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
- Dorian Finney-Smith: Out (left ankle surgery)
- Tari Eason: Questionable (right oblique strain)
Fred VanVleet has been out all season, as the Rockets have already built their guard rotation around it. The real swing injury is Tari Eason. When he plays, the Rockets get another relentless defender who turns rebounds into instant chaos.
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
Nikola Jokic is the advantage. Full stop.
He’s averaging 29.5 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.9 assists while shooting 62.2% from the field. That’s not “best big in the league” stuff. That’s “best player in the world” stuff.
And the scary part for the Rockets is that Jokic doesn’t care what the defense looks like. Switch, hedge, double, zone, pray, it all turns into the same thing: the Nuggets get a clean look because Jokic sees the game two possessions ahead.
Jamal Murray being healthy and productive is the second layer. He’s at 24.4 points and 6.9 assists, shooting 50.0% from the field, which matters because it stops the Rockets from loading every resource into Jokic. If Murray wins the guard matchup even slightly, the Nuggets’ offense starts to feel unfair again.
There’s also recent form. The Nuggets just torched the Sacramento Kings 136-105, with Jokic dropping 36 points in a game that basically ended in the first half. Even with the injuries, they’ve still looked sharp, and they’ve done it with pace and confidence, not “grind it out and survive” energy.
One more thing that matters in a game this tight: home altitude and familiarity. The Rockets can absolutely handle it, but when legs get heavy late, the Nuggets’ offense stays clean because Jokic doesn’t rely on burst. He relies on chess.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
If you’re looking for a team that can actually make the Nuggets sweat, it’s this version of the Rockets.
The headline is defense. Giving up 110.4 points per game while still scoring 120.6 is exactly how you rack up wins without needing everything to be perfect every night. Their margin for error is real.
Then there’s the rebounding and physicality. The Rockets lead the league at 48.9 rebounds per game. That’s not a cute stat. That’s how you steal possessions from an elite offense and turn a Jokic masterpiece into a “wait, why are they losing?” game.
Offensively, they’ve got multiple problem-solvers.
Kevin Durant is still Durant, averaging 24.8 points on 49.9% from the field. He’s the bailout button when a possession goes sideways, and he’s the guy who can hunt mismatches if the Nuggets are thin on wing defenders without Gordon and Braun.
Alperen Sengun has been ridiculous as a hub, averaging 23.0 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 7.0 assists on 49.9% from the field. If he makes Jokic work on defense, even a little, that’s a win for the Rockets because it reduces the Nuggets’ ability to run perfect offense every trip.
Amen Thompson has also been a real two-way force, putting up 17.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. And Reed Sheppard has given them a legit scoring punch at 12.9 points per game, which helps keep the offense afloat when the game turns into a defensive tug-of-war.
The Rockets are also coming in confident. They just beat the Los Angeles Clippers 115-113, and Sengun and Thompson basically ran the show late. That kind of close-game execution matters in a matchup where the line is basically saying, “flip a coin.”
Nuggets vs. Rockets Prediction
This is one of those games where I get the Rockets’ argument. The defense is real. The rebounding is real. And if Tari Eason plays, the Rockets’ wing pressure gets even nastier.
But the Nuggets at home are no easy task.
Jokic is the ultimate closer in a game that’s going to come down to two or three possessions. The Rockets can win stretches. They can even win quarters. The problem is they have to be perfect when Jokic decides it’s time.
But for a Nuggets team lacking two key role players, the Rockets might just have enough to take them by storm over 48 minutes.
Prediction: Rockets 118, Nuggets 109
