The Houston Rockets will play host to their Western Conference rivals, the Golden State Warriors, on March 5 at the Toyota Center at 7:30 PM ET.
The third-ranked Rockets will head into this game with a 38-22 record following their latest win against the Washington Wizards. Meanwhile, the eighth-ranked Warriors will be looking to improve upon their 31-30 record and prevent their losing streak from growing further.
Aside from their 20-7 record at home, the Rockets will be led by their superstar, Kevin Durant, who, even at 37, is averaging a team-high 26.3 points, along with 5.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this season. He will be closely supported by sophomore guard Reed Sheppard, who is averaging 13.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game.
In comparison, the Warriors’ road record of 12-17 doesn’t inspire as much confidence. Additionally, with a heavily depleted roster, Golden State will need players like Brandin Podziemski to step up. With averages of 14.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game over his last 10 appearances, Podziemski may be the Dubs’ most reliable asset.
Injury Report
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Jae’Sean Tate: Out (right knee sprain)
Fred VanVleet: Out (ACL tear)
Alperen Sengun: Questionable (illness)
Amen Thompson: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Jabari Smith Jr.: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Warriors
Jimmy Butler: Out (ACL surgery)
Stephen Curry: Out (knee injury)
Seth Curry: Out (sciatica nerve injury)
Moses Moody: Out (right wrist sprain)
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (Illness)
Will Richard: Out (right ankle sprain)
Gary Payton II: Questionable (left ankle impingement)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Houston Rockets have been a phenomenal offensive unit this season. While posting an offensive rating of 117.0 (10th in the NBA), the Rockets, as a team, have shot 47.5% from the field for the season, making them highly efficient.
The key advantage for the Rockets, however, will be their rebounding. Houston features some elite rebounders in its lineup. With the likes of Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Tari Eason in the mix, the Rockets’s league-leading average of 48.4 rebounds per game is bound to put pressure on the Warriors’ interior.
Defensively, the Rockets may benefit from their elite rim-protection ability. While ranking third among NBA teams in blocked shots (5.9), Houston is capable of choking the Warriors’ scoring within the painted area. When additionally factoring in the team’s defensive rating of 111.7 (fifth in the NBA), Houston may be heavily favored in this matchup.
The Rockets will also be heading into this game with a 4-1 record in their last five games, which included a three-game winning streak to close out the month of February. With the opportunity to return to winning habits, Houston will be threatening.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
For the most part, the Golden State Warriors appear to be severely outclassed in this matchup. Purely on statistics, the Rockets have positioned themselves as a superior team in virtually every department. However, the Warriors still have some tools that could swing the game in their favor.
The Warriors are currently ranked third in the NBA in steals per game (9.9). While this is a positive sign regarding the team’s ability to disrupt plays, it could also present an opportunity to score off of turnovers.
Currently, the Houston Rockets are among the worst teams in the league when it comes to protecting the ball, averaging 15.6 turnovers per game (26th in the NBA). While this could be an opportunity for the Warriors to amp up the pressure and capitalize on mistakes, considering that the Dubs are averaging only 19.7 points off of turnovers this year, Golden State will need greater production to win.
With several stars missing, the Warriors must rely on key role players to contribute. Hence, moving the ball around will be crucial. As an top-three NBA team in assists per game (29.2), the Warriors must prioritize ball movement to create better scoring opportunities.
X-Factors
For the Rockets, Kevin Durant is likely to be the key player. However, in terms of an X-factor, the Rockets are likely to rely on Tari Eason and Reed Sheppard to make up for the absent stars.
Eason has been nothing short of spectacular on both ends of the floor this season. With averages of 10.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game, the forward has been terrific over his last 10 appearances. Although his three-point shooting has taken a hit lately, his 47.9% shooting from three-point range at home inspires confidence.
Meanwhile, Sheppard has played a vital role on offense, averaging 16.8 points and 4.5 assists per game over the last 10 games. Aside from being a reliable floor general and scoring option, his 31-point outburst against the Warriors earlier in the season will make him a key factor in Thursday night’s matchup.
Aside from Podziemski, Draymond Green will be a key player for the Dubs. With averages of 8.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game this season, his contributions as the defensive anchor and the facilitator will prove crucial for the team.
Warriors’ two-way guard Nate Williams is also coming off an impressive showing against the Clippers. Aside from taking on the assignment of guarding Kawhi Leonard, the 27-year-old also added 18 points, two rebounds, and two assists to the effort. The Dubs will hope he can build upon this performance.
Predictions
As a team, the Warriors show a lot of heart and tenacity, traits that are often overlooked when focusing on the stat sheet. Unfortunately, they are simply too undermanned against the Rockets.
With the possibility of Houston’s star players also returning for this fixture, it is more than likely that Golden State is overwhelmed early on.
Prediction: Rockets 126, Warriors 101
