The Los Angeles Lakers are winning. That part is undeniable. At 22–11, they sit third in the Western Conference and own the fourth-best record in the entire NBA. On the surface, that is the profile of a contender. Dig a little deeper, though, and one cold, uncomfortable fact cuts through the optimism. The Lakers have scored (3,870) exactly as many points as they have allowed (3,870) this season. A perfect zero point differential.
That is not what championship teams look like.
The Lakers are a pretty good offensive team, ranked 7th in the league in offensive rating (117.4), and a major part of that is their high field goal percentage (50.1%), which is ranked second in the league. They are not a good three-point shooting team, as they are ranked 25th in percentage (34.2%), 23rd in three-point attempts (34.1), and 25th in three-point makes (11.7) per game.
They are also ranked second in the league in free throw attempts (28.5) and free throws made (22.4) per game. Overall, the Lakers are one of the better teams on that end, and if they can get a couple of quality shooters, they can rank at the top.
The Lakers’ biggest problem is on the defensive end. They are ranked 26th in defensive rating (117.6), 25th in defensive rebounds (31.2), 27th in the league in blocks (4.1), 28th in opponents’ points off turnovers (20.5), and 20th in opponent fast break points (16.0). They give up easy baskets in transition and fail to protect the rim consistently. These are massive structural defects that do not magically disappear come playoff time.
This is why the Lakers look more like an average team than a contender. They feast on bad opponents, owning a dominant 15–3 record against teams below .500. Against teams above .500, they are 7–8. That is the definition of the middle ground. Good enough to beat who they are supposed to beat. Not good enough to consistently rise against real competition.
One of the real concerns is how they lose. All of their 11 losses this season have been blowouts, with an average margin of defeat of 17.6 points.
When the Lakers fall behind, they do not scrape and claw back. They unravel. When they win, they win. When they lose, they get buried. That kind of volatility rarely survives a seven-game series.
Yes, they are 12–0 in clutch games, which matters. Late game execution, poise, and experience are real strengths. But clutch success can mask deeper issues. Many of those close games are close because the Lakers cannot put teams away earlier due to defensive lapses.
Roster construction plays a major role here. The Lakers are top-heavy. Their three offensive pillars are all elite with the ball. None of them is elite without it. In fact, Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James all rank among the 10 slowest defenders in the league. Luka has never been an average defender. Reaves competes but is limited physically. LeBron is 41, in his 23rd season, and advanced metrics show a real defensive decline.
This imbalance shows up in the data. The Lakers are the only team in the top 16 of the standings with a negative net rating. Their starting lineup ranks among the bottom five five-man lineups in the entire league.
So yes, the Lakers are winning. Yes, they are dangerous. But the numbers are not lying. Right now, they look less like a true contender and more like a talented, experienced, deeply flawed team walking a very thin line. In the playoffs, thin lines usually snap.
