Game 3 is Saturday at 3:30 PM ET at Footprint Center. The Thunder lead the series 2-0 after winning 119-84 in Game 1 and 120-107 in Game 2. The Suns are already in a must-answer spot. They do not just need a better shooting night. They need to change the way the game is being played.
Game 2 was closer than Game 1, but the Thunder still controlled the second half. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 37 points and 9 assists. Chet Holmgren added 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Jalen Williams scored 19 in 23 minutes before leaving with a left hamstring injury. The Thunder shot 54.4% from the field and kept getting good looks in the paint.
The Suns got real scoring from their top perimeter players. Dillon Brooks scored 30 points. Devin Booker had 22. Jalen Green added 21. That is 73 points from three players, and it still was not enough. That is the main problem right now. The Suns can score in stretches, but they have not been able to defend, rebound, and create easy offense at the same level as the Thunder.
Injury Report
Thunder
Isaiah Joe: Doubtful (personal reasons)
Jalen Williams: Out (left hamstring strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Suns
Grayson Allen: Questionable (left hamstring strain)
Jordan Goodwin: Questionable (left calf soreness)
Mark Williams: Out (left foot third metatarsal stress reaction)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns’ best argument is that Game 2 showed a better offensive base than Game 1. Brooks had 30, Booker had 22, and Green had 21. That is enough scoring to compete if the rest of the game is closer. The Suns do not need all three to explode again, but they need at least two of them to stay efficient and put pressure on the Thunder defense for four quarters.
The Jalen Williams injury also changes the series a little. Williams had 19 points in only 23 minutes in Game 2 before leaving. With him out, the Thunder lose a key secondary scorer, wing creator, and defender. That gives the Suns one clearer target. They can send more bodies toward Gilgeous-Alexander and make the rest of the Thunder lineup prove it can score enough.
The Suns also need to use the home floor to play faster. Too many possessions through two games have started with the Thunder already set. That is death against this defense. Booker and Green need earlier catches, earlier screens, and more attacks before Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein can load up around the rim.
The three-point line has to become a bigger part of the game, too. The Suns cannot win a paint battle right now, especially with Mark Williams out. They need drive-and-kick threes, quick swing passes, and more shots before the defense gets fully matched. If the game becomes a midrange-and-paint battle, the Thunder have the cleaner path.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder have the biggest edge in the series: Gilgeous-Alexander is controlling every game. In Game 2, he scored 37 and handed out 9 assists. He is getting into the lane, drawing help, and making the next play. The Suns have not found a defender who can keep him in front without needing help behind the play.
The Thunder also have owned the interior. Holmgren had 19, 8, and 4 blocks in Game 2. Hartenstein has given them size, screening, and extra physicality. With Mark Williams out, the Suns do not have the same rim presence. That is why the Thunder keep getting strong paint touches and clean finishes.
The Thunder do not have to change much in Game 3. They should keep putting Gilgeous-Alexander in the middle of the floor, use Holmgren as a spacer and rim threat, and make the Suns defend multiple actions. When the Suns help, the Thunder move the ball. When the Suns stay home, Gilgeous-Alexander attacks one-on-one. That is a hard choice every trip.
The defense has also been sharper. Game 1 was a complete shutdown, with the Suns scoring only 84 points. Game 2 was better for the Suns, but the Thunder still forced them into too many tough possessions. If the Suns are relying on Brooks to score 30 again, that is a win for the Thunder’s game plan.
X-Factors
Dillon Brooks is the biggest Suns X-factor because his scoring has been one of the few real positives in the series. Through two games, he is at 24.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, including 18 points and 7 rebounds in Game 1 and 30 points in Game 2. The Suns need that shot-making again, but they also need him taking the main wing defensive assignment without getting into foul trouble.
Jordan Goodwin is another important Suns piece if he plays. Through two games, he is at 6.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.5 steals per game in the series. He had 5 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals in Game 1, then followed with 8 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals in Game 2. The Suns need his ball pressure, rebounding from the guard spot, and ability to create extra possessions because the Thunder have controlled too much of the half-court game.
Chet Holmgren is a major Thunder X-factor because his series has been strong on both ends. Through two games, he is at 17.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per game. He had 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks in Game 1, then followed with 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 blocks in Game 2. The Suns have not found a good answer for his size. If Holmgren keeps protecting the rim and spacing the floor, the Thunder can control the game inside and outside.
Alex Caruso is another key Thunder player because the numbers do not fully show his value, but they still matter. Through two games, he is at 4.5 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. He had 5 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals in Game 1, then added 4 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal in Game 2. His job is to pressure Booker, bother Green, switch actions, and keep the Suns from starting offense cleanly.
Prediction
The Suns should be better at home, and Williams being out gives them a real opening. Brooks, Booker, and Green already combined for 73 points in Game 2, so the scoring can be there. The issue is everything else. They need more stops, more pace, and more easy threes.
The Thunder still look like the better team. Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best player in the series, Holmgren has changed the paint, and the defense has forced the Suns into too many hard shots. Game 3 should be closer, but the Thunder still have more answers.
Prediction: Suns 109, Thunder 114
