Game 4 is Saturday at 6:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena. The Hawks lead the series 2-1 after winning Games 2 and 3 by a combined two points. The Knicks won Game 1, 113-102, but then lost 107-106 and 109-108. This series is now about late-game execution, bench production, and who controls the McCollum-Brunson matchup.
Game 3 was the clearest warning for the Knicks. The Hawks won 109-108 after CJ McCollum hit the go-ahead jumper with 12.7 seconds left. Jalen Johnson had 24 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists. Jonathan Kuminga had 21 points off the bench on 9-for-14 shooting. For the Knicks, OG Anunoby had 29 points, Jalen Brunson had 26, and Karl-Anthony Towns had 21 points and 17 rebounds.
Injury Report
Hawks
Jock Landale: Out (right high ankle sprain)
Knicks
No players listed.
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The first edge is the scoreboard trend. The Hawks are up 2-1 and have won two straight close games. Game 2 was a 107-106 comeback after the Knicks led by 12, and the Hawks won the fourth quarter 28-15. Game 3 was 109-108 after McCollum hit another late shot. That is not a huge margin, but it shows who has executed better in the final minute.
McCollum has been the main pressure point. He had 32 points in Game 2 and 23 points in Game 3, including both late-game daggers. The Knicks have tried different defenders, but the matchup has not stabilized. Josh Hart limited him to 2-for-5 in the second half of Game 3, but McBride was on him for the final shot. That decision became one of the biggest talking points after the loss.
The Hawks are also winning the bench minutes. Kuminga had 19 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals in Game 2, then followed with 21 points in Game 3. That is 40 points over the last two games from a bench forward who is also bothering Towns physically. The Knicks have not matched that level of second-unit scoring.
The other edge is balance. In Game 3, Johnson had 24-10-8, McCollum had 23, Kuminga had 21, and Dyson Daniels had 8 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. The Hawks got scoring, rebounding, playmaking, and point-of-attack defense from different players. The Knicks got strong numbers from Anunoby, Brunson, and Towns, but Hart and Mikal Bridges combined to shoot 1-for-12 with 6 turnovers in Game 3. That is a huge gap in role-player output.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks’ case starts with how close the last two losses were. They lost Game 2 by one and Game 3 by one. That means the series could easily be 3-0 Knicks if two final possessions go differently. The problem is execution, not talent level. They have enough scoring to win this matchup, but the last-shot possessions and fourth-quarter offense have been poor.
Brunson is still giving them a strong scoring base. He had 28 points and 7 assists in Game 1, then 26 in Game 3. Towns has also been productive. He had 25 points in Game 1 and 21 points with 17 rebounds in Game 3. The Knicks are not losing because their stars are invisible. They are losing because the support offense and late-game structure have not been good enough.
The Knicks also have a defensive adjustment sitting in front of them. Hart has to spend more time on McCollum late. In Game 3, Hart was the one defender who clearly bothered him, holding him to 2-for-5 in the second half. McBride is useful, but McCollum shot over him on the winner. Game 4 has to be more direct: Hart on McCollum, more size at the point of attack, and fewer switches that give McCollum a clean pull-up.
The other fix is spacing on the final possession. Game 3 ended with a broken play after Brunson dribbled under the basket and tried a pass that turned into a turnover. Analysts pointed to the poor spacing and Towns’ weak screen on the action. The Knicks do not need a complex final set. They need Brunson or Towns getting downhill with enough room to attack.
X-Factors
Jonathan Kuminga is the first Hawks X-factor because his bench scoring has changed the series. Through three games, he is averaging 16.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.7 blocks while shooting 57.6% from the field and 30.0% from three. He has 48 total points in 90 minutes and is plus-6 in the series. In Game 3, he had 21 points on 9-for-14 shooting, 2-for-4 from three, 4 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block. Over Games 2 and 3, he is at 20.0 points and 4.0 rebounds per game on 61.5% from the field. That is the bench gap right now. The Knicks need a direct answer for his rim pressure and physical drives.
Dyson Daniels is the second Hawks X-factor because his series is not about scoring, but the numbers still matter. Through three games, he has 18 points, 26 rebounds, 19 assists, 8 steals, and 2 blocks. That is 6.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 2.7 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game. In Game 1, he had 4 points, 9 rebounds, 11 assists, and 3 steals. In Game 3, he had 8 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, and was plus-4 in 33 minutes. If Daniels keeps giving the Hawks near double-digit rebounds from the guard spot and two or three steals, the Knicks lose too many possession battles.
Josh Hart is the first Knicks X-factor because his series has swung from useful to damaging. In Game 1, he had 11 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals. In Game 2, he had 15 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1 steal. In Game 3, he scored only 2 points and went 1-for-9 from the field. That puts him at 9.3 points per game through three games. The Knicks do not need him taking over, but they need the Game 1 and Game 2 version: double-digit rebounds, quick decisions, and real McCollum minutes late.
Mikal Bridges is the other Knicks X-factor because his offensive drop has become too big to ignore. In Game 1, he had 11 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal on 5-for-9 shooting. In Game 2, he had 10 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, and 1 steal on 3-for-10 shooting. In Game 3, he had 0 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 4 turnovers, and shot 0-for-3 in 21 minutes. Through three games, that is 7.0 points, 1.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.7 turnovers per game on 8-for-22 shooting. That is not enough. If Bridges gives the Knicks another single-digit scoring game, they are asking Brunson, Towns, and Anunoby to cover too much.
Prediction
The Knicks have enough to tie this series. Brunson, Towns, and Anunoby have all produced. The last two losses came by one point each. But the Hawks have been better in the fourth quarter, better off the bench, and sharper on the final possession. Game 4 should be tight again. The Knicks will probably adjust the McCollum coverage and get a better Bridges game. Still, the Hawks have more momentum, Kuminga has changed the bench matchup, and McCollum has been the best late-game shot-maker in the series.
Prediction: Hawks 110, Knicks 107
