The Suns host the Raptors at Mortgage Matchup Center on Sunday, March 22, at 9 p.m. ET.
The Suns are 39-32, seventh in the West, and 22-14 at home. The Raptors are 39-30, fifth in the East, and 20-14 on the road.
The Suns are coming off a 108-105 loss to the Bucks, their fifth straight defeat. The Raptors are coming off a 121-115 loss to the Nuggets after a three-game winning streak.
The Raptors also lead the season series 1-0 after a 122-115 win on March 13. Brandon Ingram scored 36 in that game, while Jalen Green had 34 for the Suns.
For the Suns, Devin Booker is putting up 25.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists, while Jalen Green has given them 17.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in 23 games.
For the Raptors, Brandon Ingram is at 21.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists, and Scottie Barnes has produced 18.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists.
This game is really about who handles pressure better. The Suns have home court and desperation. The Raptors have been the cleaner team lately and already showed they can survive this matchup.
Injury Report
Suns
Grayson Allen: Out (left knee injury management)
Dillon Brooks: Out (left hand fracture)
Amir Coffey: Out (left ankle sprain)
Haywood Highsmith: Out (right knee injury management)
Mark Williams: Out (left foot third metatarsal stress reaction)
Royce O’Neale: Questionable (left knee soreness)
Raptors
Chucky Hepburn: Out (G League – Two-Way)
A.J. Lawson: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Alijah Martin: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Collin Murray-Boyles: Questionable (left thumb sprain)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The best Suns case starts with defensive playmaking. They are averaging 9.7 steals per game, which ranks second in the league, and that is still one of the easiest ways for them to manufacture offense when the half court gets shaky. They are also sitting at a 114.1 defensive rating, which ranks 12th. That is not elite, but it is good enough to give them a chance if they can turn this into a scramble game instead of a clean passing contest.
There is also the home angle. The Suns are 22-14 in this building, while the Raptors are 20-14 on the road. That road record is good, but the larger point is that the Suns need this spot badly and should get one of their best offensive whistles at home. Booker is still the best pure scorer in the game, and if he gets downhill early, the whole matchup can flip because the Raptors do not have a simple one-on-one answer for him.
The other argument is shot profile. The Suns have a 115.1 offensive rating, which ranks 17th, and they are at 24.7 assists per game, which ranks 18th. Those are not great numbers, but they are close enough to the Raptors that individual shot-making can decide the game. If Booker wins the late-clock possessions and Green gives them a real second downhill threat, the Suns have enough offense to finally stop the skid.
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors have been the more balanced team over the full season. Their 115.2 offensive rating ranks 16th, just ahead of the Suns, and their 113.1 defensive rating ranks seventh. That defensive gap matters. The Suns are 17th on offense and 12th on defense, so the difference between these teams is not huge, but the Raptors have been a little cleaner on both ends and a little more stable overall.
The passing edge is a real separator. The Raptors are averaging 28.8 assists per game, which ranks fourth in the league. That is a big jump from the Suns’ 24.7, which ranks 18th. When the Raptors are right, they do not need one player to dominate every possession. Barnes can initiate, Ingram can score from the wing, and the ball keeps moving. Against a Suns team that has been coughing up leads late, that kind of connective offense is dangerous.
The recent form also leans their way. The Raptors are 3-1 since the first Suns meeting and nearly stole one in Denver before fading late. The Suns, meanwhile, have not been able to close games at all. They have lost five straight, and the offense has repeatedly stalled in the fourth quarter. Until they prove otherwise, it is hard to bet on them against a team that already beat them once nine days ago.
X-Factors
Collin Gillespie is a big one for the Suns. He just had 18 against the Bucks, and with so many wings out, they need his secondary ball-handling and quick decisions.
Oso Ighodaro is also a big piece on this matchup because the Suns are thin up front. If he can survive the glass and keep the offense moving as a short-roll passer, the Suns have a real chance to control the non-Booker minutes.
For the Raptors, Jakob Poeltl is the quiet swing piece after his 23-point night against the Nuggets. The Suns are already missing Mark Williams, so Poeltl can tilt the interior if he wins the paint.
Immanuel Quickley is the other one because this game could come down to which team gets cleaner guard play next to its stars. If Quickley keeps the Raptors organized, the Suns’ pressure gets a lot less scary.
Prediction
I’m taking the Raptors. The Suns have the better individual scorer and the urgency angle, but they are too beat up and too shaky late right now. The Raptors have the No. 7 defense, the No. 4 assist rate, and they already beat this team once by surviving the Suns’ backcourt scoring burst. That feels important because this matchup looks similar again. Booker will get his, Green should have moments, but the Raptors have more reliable team offense and a sturdier game shape right now.
Prediction: Raptors 114, Suns 109
