Nikola Jokic’s historic season may be remembered less for how it ended than for how it was interrupted. The Denver Nuggets star is expected to miss at least four weeks after suffering a hyperextension in his left knee. A new reality is setting in fast, as The Joker will now most likely be disqualified from the MVP race, and the award has a new heavy favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Jokic was in the middle of one of the greatest regular seasons the league has ever seen, averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists while shooting over 60.5% from the field and 43.5% from three. He was leading the league in assists, rebounds, double-doubles, and triple-doubles and sitting in the top five in scoring. For weeks, he was the clear number one on the MVP leaderboard.
All of that changed the moment his knee bent backward.
Under the current rules, a player must feature in at least 65 games to be eligible for end of season awards. Jokic will be re-evaluated in four weeks, which is January 27th. In that timespan, the Nuggets will play 15 games. Even if Jokic returns on January 27th, he can only miss three more games.
And it’s highly unlikely that Jokic will return earlier or even in the given timeline. The Nuggets will also not take unnecessary risks and rush him back, as they sit third in the West with a 22-10 record. They will want Jokic healthy during the playoffs, as they aim for a deep run. So it’s fair to say that Jokic will most likely be disqualified by the time he returns to the court.
With Jokic sidelined, the race now has a clear frontrunner. The reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has been exceptional all season, averaging 32.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 6.4 assists while shooting 55.9% from the field and 41.9% from three. More importantly, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 28-5, the best record in the league by a comfortable margin. History has shown time and again that the best player on the best team usually wins this award, especially when the statistical gap is not overwhelming.
Shai now checks every traditional MVP box. Elite efficiency, elite scoring volume, two-way impact, and team dominance. With Jokic likely out of the equation, there is little standing between Gilgeous-Alexander and a second straight MVP trophy.
Luka Doncic will rise in the conversation as well. He is averaging 33.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.6 assists, numbers that rival anyone in the league. Yet the Los Angeles Lakers sit fifth in the West at 20-10. For Luka to seriously challenge Shai, the Lakers would likely need to climb into the top two or three seeds, and even then, availability matters. Luka has already missed seven games, leaving him far less room for error than Shai.
Others like Jalen Brunson and Cade Cunningham remain on the fringes of the race as the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons battle near the top of the East, but neither has the combination of team record and individual dominance that Shai currently enjoys.
Unless something unexpected happens, the Jokic era of MVP dominance pauses here. Not with a decline, not with a slump, but with a knee injury that stopped a historic run cold. And in that opening, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped firmly into the lead, with the award now firmly in his grasp.
