3 Reasons Why The Thunder Are Still Massive Favorites Over The Spurs Despite The Blowout Loss

Here are three reasons why the Oklahoma City Thunder still look like the favorite to advance to the NBA Finals after being blown out by the Spurs.

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Jan 19, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) and center Chet Holmgren (7) celebrate after a three point basket during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

A 21-point playoff loss always hits loud. The Spurs beat the Thunder 103-82 in Game 4, tied the Western Conference Finals at 2-2, and suddenly the series feels way more dangerous than it did two nights ago. Victor Wembanyama was excellent again with 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists, three blocks, and two steals. The Spurs forced 20 turnovers, held the Thunder to 33% from the field, and just 6-of-33 from three. That’s no small thing. It was a real punch in the mouth.

Still, one blowout doesn’t rewrite the whole story of this matchup. The Thunder remain the safer bet for the rest of the series. They’ve shown more ways to win. They’ve got more guards who can defend and score. More bench guys who can flip a quarter. And more consistent answers for Wembanyama, even if no one’s truly stopping him.

The Spurs are dangerous, no question. Wembanyama can be the best player on the floor any night. Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper have been legit in this series, and De’Aaron Fox coming back adds real rim pressure. But the Thunder still feel like the team with the simpler, more reliable formula. Their wins have looked steadier. Their physical approach on Wembanyama has worked better since Game 1. And their depth keeps producing offense even when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t carrying everything.

That’s why Game 4 feels more like a desperate Spurs push than a true shift in the series.

 

1. The Thunder’s Wins Have Looked Easier Than The Spurs’ Wins

The series is tied, but the wins don’t feel the same.

The Spurs took Game 1 in double overtime, 122-115. They stole home court and proved they belonged. But it took everything from Wembanyama: 41 points, 24 rebounds, nearly 49 minutes, big shots late, and still needed two overtimes to win by seven. Dylan Harper added 24 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, and seven steals. That’s a ton of star power just to squeeze out a seven-point win after 58 minutes.

Here’s the thing: the Spurs’ best win needed historic stuff from Wembanyama. The Thunder were right there with a chance to steal it. Alex Caruso dropped 31 off the bench. Shai shot poorly, but they hung tough, and it wasn’t decided until the very end of the second OT.

The Thunder’s wins felt different. They took Game 2 at home, 122-113, and Game 3 on the road, 123-108. Game 3 really stands out. The Spurs jumped them 15-0 at home, the crowd going crazy, Wembanyama active early, and still lost by 15. That’s a bad look. You can’t give up a start like that in a Conference Finals game at home and lose control so quickly.

The Thunder didn’t need Shai going for 40. He had 26 and 12 assists in Game 3. He was good, not superhero level. The bench did the heavy lifting. Jared McCain scored 24. Jaylin Williams had 18. The Thunder bench put up a franchise playoff-record 76 points and outscored the Spurs bench by 53. That’s not normal. That’s a second unit straight-up taking over a playoff game.

This is why the Thunder still feel stronger. Their wins don’t require perfection. They can get it done when a role player gets hot. When the bench flips the game. Even if Holmgren is quiet or Jalen Williams is sidelined. That’s a much better spot to be in during a long series.

The Spurs’ wins feel heavier. Game 1 needed double OT and one of the best games of Wembanyama’s young career. Game 4 needed the Thunder to have their worst offensive night of the series, with 20 turnovers and 18.2% from three. The Spurs earned it with sharp defense and real pressure, but it still took a total collapse from the Thunder.

That’s the gap. The Spurs can beat them, and they’ve done it twice. But the Thunder’s path to victory looks a lot less fragile.

 

2. Isaiah Hartenstein Has Helped Make Wembanyama Work For Everything

After Game 1, the Thunder looked in real trouble. Wembanyama was way too comfortable catching in good spots, owning the boards, hitting threes, finishing inside, and controlling the late game. When a guy drops 41 and 24 in a Conference Finals, you wonder if there’s any answer at all.

But the Thunder didn’t need a perfect shutdown. They needed to change the fight.

That’s where Isaiah Hartenstein comes in. He’s not stopping Wembanyama alone, and nobody can. But he brings size, contact, and a willingness to hit first. It’s shifted the tone since Game 1.

In Game 2, Wembanyama went down to 21 points on 8-of-16. Still had 17 rebounds, six assists, and four blocks in a good game, but had far less control. Hartenstein had 10 and 13 in 27 minutes, and the Thunder made Wembanyama work through extra bodies.

The idea is to wear him down before he even shoots. Hartenstein leans on him, fights the catches, bumps him on rolls, forces him to catch a step or two farther out. It seems small, but it changes everything. Catch at the rim? Defense is cooked. Catch at 17 feet with a body and help nearby? The Thunder can live with it.

They’ve also got Chet Holmgren as the other option. Not as physical, but long, timed well, and mobile enough to contest without giving the same look every time. Hartenstein makes it ugly. Holmgren makes it long. Guards dig and reach to force passes into traffic.

Game 4 was different. The Spurs came with real urgency. Wembanyama was aggressive early, and they defended like their season was on the line. The Thunder looked too loose, like they thought they had it wrapped after Game 3. That can happen, but they can’t let it happen again.

The Hartenstein plan still works. They’re not trying to make Wembanyama average; that’s not happening. They’re making his greatness into hard work. Every post touch a battle. Every roll with contact. Every rebound contested. What I loved the most was Hartenstein Gortat-screening him to prevent his help defense at the rim. If he still gets 30, okay. The Thunder can handle that as long as the rest of the Spurs aren’t getting easy stuff off his comfort zone.

That’s why the physical approach still makes sense after Game 4. The Spurs played with desperation. The Thunder need discipline. If Hartenstein keeps it physical without over-fouling, they’ve still got a real way to limit Wembanyama’s impact.

 

3. The Thunder Have More Players Who Can Explode Without Warning

This might be the biggest gap in the series.

The Thunder have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which already gives them an elite playoff offense. He put up 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on 55.3% shooting this season and was the back-to-back MVP and unanimous All-NBA First Team. He’s the guy who brings order when things slow down.

But they’re not just Shai. That’s why they’re so hard to kill. Caruso had 31 in Game 1. McCain dropped 24 in Game 3. Jaylin Williams had 18 and hit five threes in Game 3. Ajay Mitchell was averaging 15.1 and 4.3 assists in the playoffs before the calf injury. That’s serious extra scoring from outside the main stars.

It matters a lot because Holmgren hasn’t taken over as a scorer in this series, and Jalen Williams has been dealing with that left hamstring. In most teams, that would break the offense. For the Thunder, it hasn’t. The bench keeps stepping up.

It’s not luck. It’s who they are. They play fast, defend, and force turnovers. Multiple guards push after stops. Their shooting can punish closeouts. And they actually trust their role players. McCain can come in firing. Caruso hits open threes, attacks bad rotations, and guards bigger guys. Jaylin stretches the floor and passes from the frontcourt. Cason Wallace defends and moves the ball.

The Spurs don’t have that same margin. Wembanyama is the foundation. Castle has been strong and looks playoff-ready. Harper has had big moments. Fox brings speed and downhill attack, but he’s still coming back from the sprained right ankle. He had 15, seven, and six in Game 3 but had to leave briefly with another ankle issue.

That’s the difference. The Spurs have talent, but their offense feels tied to the same few guys. If Wembanyama isn’t dominating, they stall. If Castle turns it over, the Thunder run. If Fox isn’t full speed, half-court pressure drops. If Harper doesn’t give them a strong bench push, those minutes get risky.

The Thunder can get surprise 20-point games from way more spots. That’s a nightmare in the playoffs. You can game-plan for Shai. Decide how to guard Holmgren. Load up on Wembanyama. But it’s much tougher to prepare for Caruso going for 31, McCain for 24, or Jaylin hitting five threes.

That depth travels. It also helps after bad losses. The Thunder don’t need one magic fix. They just need one or two extra guys to hit shots and defend hard. They’ve already done it multiple times.

 

Final Take

The Game 4 blowout was ugly for the Thunder. No sugarcoating it. They were sloppy, slow, and too relaxed. The Spurs jumped them early, stayed on them, and never let up. Wembanyama looked like the best player again, and the Spurs’ defense finally made the Thunder uncomfortable for a full game.

But looking at the whole series, the Thunder are still the better team. Their wins have been more convincing. Their bench has been stronger. Their physical plan on Wembanyama has done enough to stop the series from being only about him. They’ve got the best guard in the series in Gilgeous-Alexander, plus more role players who can steal a quarter on their own.

Sure, the Spurs can win this thing if Wembanyama stays historic and the Thunder keep turning it over. That’s possible. But it’s a much harder road. The Thunder have more ways to survive a bad night. They can win with defense, with bench scoring, with Shai taking over late, even without Holmgren going for 25. They’ve already proven it.

That’s why the blowout shouldn’t change who the favorite is. It should just wake the Thunder up. The Spurs made it a real series, but the Thunder still have the deeper roster, the easier path to points, and the more repeatable formula.

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Francisco Leiva is a staff writer for Fadeaway World from Buenos Aires, Argentina. He is a recent graduate of the University of Buenos Aires and in 2023 joined the Fadeaway World team. Previously a writer for Basquetplus, Fran has dedicated years to covering Argentina's local basketball leagues and the larger South American basketball scene, focusing on international tournaments.Fran's deep connection to basketball began in the early 2000s, inspired by the prowess of the San Antonio Spurs' big three: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and fellow Argentinian, Manu Ginóbili. His years spent obsessing over the Spurs have led to deep insights that make his articles stand out amongst others in the industry. Fran has a profound respect for the Spurs' fanbase, praising their class and patience, especially during tougher times for the team. He finds them less toxic compared to other fanbases of great franchises like the Warriors or Lakers, who can be quite annoying on social media.An avid fan of Luka Doncic since his debut with Real Madrid, Fran dreams of interviewing the star player. He believes Luka has the potential to become the greatest of all time (GOAT) with the right supporting cast. Fran's experience and drive to provide detailed reporting give Fadeaway World a unique perspective, offering expert knowledge and regional insights to our content.
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